Thread by @MichaelDunwort1

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 1/ tl;dr - Today yes... No liquidity, not worth the risk, solutions work (working cap/treasury rebalance). 5 years, no.

⏳Here's what's most likely to go down⏳

*Presently*
Decentralized types - Organic/linear growth ("slow")
Fiatcoins - Rapid market cap growth.

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 2/ Now there’s going to be easy money to capture AUM (market cap). So USDC/USDT/PAX/etc… will fight for that AUM (fiat-coins) starting out they’ll offer rewards/rebates for things like debit cards etc… Along with giving a cut of the interest being earned in the central float

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 3/ from the savings deposits. While this is happening, decentralized ones will appear that they’re too slow, and missed the opportunity, game over, etc… Although they’re actually building at a healthy organic rock-solid foundation of developer tooling, and more extensible

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 4/ infrastructure. Savings, lending, etc… Once we’ve got a throng of the fiatcoins, we’re going to see ABC developer write a basic contract in <30 minutes that’ll tie fiatcoinUSD to fiatcoinBRL.

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 5/ That is going to be the first sign of “oh shit. I just built Transferwise for next to nothing”. Although, the incentives to “offboard” into fiat aren’t as drastic now that there’s debit cards, interest earning accounts, etc… This will provide a pretty radical leapfrog in the

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 6/ industry (like we saw with regions that skipped dial-up straight to wi-fi). While this happens, decentralized coins are capturing more of this larger growth. Like a leaking bucket, the reduction in idiosyncratic risk from coins fed with multiple stable-coins is stronger

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 7/ than its counter-part. Likely the Decentralized coins are bringing online the other part of the world that never had a bank account, while fiat coins are feeling invincible they’re actually serving as an outsourced education & on-ramp mechanic that migrates all the way

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 8/ back into a similar value prop just with more peace of mind (reduced risk on a central party). To the nostro-vostro statement, the likely scenario is that they won’t optimize their business ops, and we’ll see them have a daunting amount of competitors that have seemingly

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 9/ come out of nowhere and overthrown their bread and butter. To be cliche, it’s going to look very similar to ride-sharing/taxi co’s. Everyone is basically a UI and customer support channel, no inventory.

@_jillruth @twobitidiot 10/ Capital & float management is the largest barrier to entry behind regulatory…

IMO - Don't be any of these if it unfolds.
- To big to slash margins. Banks/fiatCoin provider.
- Bridge token (@twobitidiot 😉).
- SWIFT.

😜5 years later...
History repeats but stablecoin --> BTC

@_jillruth @twobitidiot /End

Actually me right now...