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On jobs and financial services: anyone expecting a mass, overnight exodus has not been paying attention. The European regulators have been clever.
They are allowing certain functions to continue to operate out of London for a fixed period of time.
They are allowing certain functions to continue to operate out of London for a fixed period of time.
*But* the conditions of many banking licenses for banks that have recently set up in, say, Frankfurt, stipulate that, for example, in the next year must draw up plans laying out how they are gradually going to move more functions (for example, trading) over to within the EU.
There is no rush. But over time the noose will tighten, and more and more capacity will need to be shifted.
Additionally, for foreign banks, e.g. Japanese, they will need to decide whether it is cost-effective to have two capital pools in Europe.
Additionally, for foreign banks, e.g. Japanese, they will need to decide whether it is cost-effective to have two capital pools in Europe.
And as an observation, due to the liberal nature of the UK, you could argue it would be more efficient for some to have their main subsidiary within the EU, and then branch into London.
So what you looking at is a gradual erosion of economic activity, and a shift in investment. Wouldn't want to overstate it of course, but there are obvious knock on implications for the UK in the long-run.
