Thread by @cjsotomatic

1/n. New paper!

Does personality research replicate? I tried to replicate 78 previously-published links between the Big Five traits and consequential life outcomes. You won't believe what happened next...

2. Original studies selected from Ozer and Benet-Martinez's (2006) landmark review. Personality measured with the BFI-2. Outcomes measured as similarly as possible to the original studies. Large samples (median N = 1504). Preregistered hypotheses and analyses.

3. First key result: About 85% of the trait-outcome associations replicated successfully, in terms of statistical significance.

4. Second key result: Replication effect sizes were typically about 80% as large as in the original studies.

5. Third key result: Replication effect size was predicted by original effect size; statistical significance was predicted by replication sample size, statistical power, and similarity to the original study design.

6. Optimistic take: The personality-outcome literature seems pretty solid. Replicability was higher than I expected going in, in terms of both statistical significance and effect sizes.

7. Pessimistic take: Replicability was lower than would be expected in the absence of false positives and biased reporting--especially given the self-report, cross-sectional replication design.

8. Bottom line: The personality literature provides a pretty accurate map of trait-outcome associations, but can still benefit from efforts to improve replicability.

9. Accepted manuscript available at osf.io/k436d/

10. Open materials, data, code, and more available at osf.io/d3xb7/