Thread by @politico

(1/10) Trump's strongest supporters are often characterized as white, male, working class, older voters. But let’s test that theory. How much impact do each of these voting blocs really have on the president’s approval ratings? politi.co/2HPfTsn

(2/10) We built a simple model to find out. Using the size of demographic groups within the voting population, our model estimates how each one impacts the president’s overall approval rating. Let’s try one out. politi.co/2HSb3e1

(3/10)What do Trump's ratings look like without white voters? With zero approval from them, the president’s overall rating would slip from 41 to 6%. politi.co/2HSb3e1

(4/10) Now, let's look at minority voters. Even if Trump won 100% approval among minority voters (with 0% from white voters) his overall rating would only be 27%.

This tells us white voters have more influence on Trump’s ratings than any other group. politi.co/2HSb3e1

(5/10) Okay, now let's take minority support down to 0% in our model. Pretty striking: with white voters alone, Trump's approval can still reach as high as 74% in our model.

What this tells us: Trump doesn’t need to appeal to non-white voters to get the numbers he wants.

(6/10) Here’s some interesting casework: If male approval sunk to that of female voters, Trump’s overall approval could hit a record low of 36%. politi.co/2HSb3e1

(7/10) Now, let's look at the real numbers. The biggest fissure is among party affiliation. Republicans have consistently floated around 80%, Democrats nearly the inverse at less than 20% approval. politi.co/2HSb3e1

(8/10) Approval ratings don’t always directly correspond with major events or Trump’s actions, but the White House’s agenda helps provide context. Trump saw his lowest approval ratings in August, shortly after the far-right riots took place in Charlottesville.

(9/10) Trump's highest approval numbers are at the beginning of his tenure. As with most presidential terms, it’s dropped over time. politi.co/2HPfTsn

(10/10) Now it's your turn. Adjust approval of different voting blocs to buoy or sink the president's ratings. Let us know what you find. politi.co/2HSb3e1