, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Mini-thread: India's decision tree in responding to #PulwamaAttack is complex. The scale of the attack could demand more than the 2016 "surgical strikes" following the terrorist attack on Uri. But more substantial action against Pakistan risks escalation.
Strike in LOC or in Punjab? Against JeM or "facilitators" linked to Pakistani state? Covert or SOF ground ops? Standoff air strikes or missiles? These choices invoke a range of downstream effects, which @PerkovichG and I explored in this @TWQgw article. carnegieendowment.org/2015/05/22/mod…
Having experienced the mood in Delhi in September 2016, which we wrote about for Herald magazine, the media volume will go to 11 and the demand for retribution will be extra high given coming elections. Decisionmakers should turn off their TVs. carnegieendowment.org/2017/01/24/is-…
The temptation for a visible response with PR effects will be hard for the Indin govt to ignore. Wise Indian leaders in the past (including Modi prior to the Uri attack) have tried to manage the problem, rather than "restore" deterrence with a big counter-strike.
Some Indian (and other) analysts, citing Israeli operations against Hamas and Hezbollah, have argued instead for a "mowing the grass" strategy. This, too, is not without risk, and the Israeli experience also shows that long-term effects can be worse.
Ultimately, violent actions/responses beget more violence. The results will be terrible for Indians, terrible for Pakistanis, and terrible for Kashmiris. There simply are no silver bullet military solutions - see our book, Not War, Not Peace? [End] carnegieendowment.org/2016/08/25/not…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Toby Dalton
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!