Thread by @goalbonanza

15 reasons to go with alternative chip strategy for #fpl which allows the following:

✅ Load up on Man City
✅ Avoid losing value in Man Utd and Wolves players
✅ Option to use both BB/TC in DGW's
✅ More quality players, perhaps even quantity(?)

Assumptions:
FH, WC and BB in tact (TC optional)
Currently have ~5 players for blank GW31
Blank GW31 fixtures fall in DGW32
Blank GW33 fixtures fall in DGW35
Chelsea DGW32
Brighton vs Cardiff DGW tbc

This thread will also be split into three phases to try and make better sense of it:

Phase 1 - GW27-GW30, the calm before the storm.
Phase 2 - GW31-GW33, pure carnage.
Phase 3 - GW34-GW38, the home stretch.

It is important to remember that group 1 is the teams that play in blank GW31 and group 2 are the teams that don't. As having to write "blank/do not blank" 50 times is going to confuse things even more. So I will refer to the groups as per the picture.

Note that having ~5 from group 1 means you can use your transfers to field near 11 in GW31. It also means you have ~10 group 2 players so can use your transfers to field near 15 DGW players in GW32. Both are equally viable.

Most peoples transfers in Phase 1, depending on their strategy, will be as follows:

FH32 = Buy group 1 players
FH31 = Buy group 2 players

Below are the reasons why I think FH31/BB32/WC33 is the best strategy and also the reasons why not to free hit in 32:

1) Pool of players with a fixture in GW31 score less

(PPG >= 4, Games >= 10)
Group 1 - 21 players
Group 2 - 30 players

Rotation risks like Moura, Pedro and Ozil not included.
Injured players removed. Brooks and Wilson included for group 1 as they may be back.

2) Don't sell your form players

The reason we have ~10 group 2 and ~5 group 1 players is that they have served us well. Most current strategies involve sacrificing good players at a heavy price loss, when they may well want them back in 35. This hopefully can be avoided.

3) Motivation

✅Title challengers, top four, relegation scrap
❌Relegated, mid table obscurity
❓Wolves/Watford Europa

It looks pretty ominous for group 1, although it isn't reason enough to rule them out, backing these already inconsistent teams seems like a gamble.

4) Sea of blue fixtures might be a couple shades lighter

Time and time again at the business end of the season we see whipping boys seemingly pick up results from nowhere when the threat of PL survival gets serious. Will they just roll over? History would say not

5) MAN CITY!

11 goals in their last 3 fixtures (ARS, eve, CHE). 3 goals with 10 men away in the CL last night. 128 goals this season. Sofa sales must be through the roof if the plan is max 1 Man City for WHM bou WAT. It is the ultimate differential for those who stock up.

6) Avoiding loss in value

Rashford, Pogba, Doherty, Jiminez - most teams have £2m-£3m tied up in these players. They are guaranteed two DGWs so selling means buying back at a higher price. Most have profit in Son and the mighty AWB too. Likely starters in GW31 ~8 optimal

7) Lack of advantage with FH31?

Free hit may not gain much of an advantage in GW31 itself, but having 2-3 players extra is still an edge. However across Phase 1 the advantage gained may be in picking players with generally higher PPG over a 4 GW period.

8) Use your BB chip in the bigger double gameweek

Getting 13 DGW players with Salah (TOT) and a LIV defender is easy. For those who bought Salah again at 13.4, he may be good insurance for Int break injuries, as you can sell a flagged player and get two good DGW-ers extra for -4

9) How to navigate GW33, part 1

I think this strategy hasn't been mentioned much as the key move is to wildcard as many as 6 non starters in GW33, which seems like madness. But bear in mind, up to now in Phase 2 we have extra players from FH31 (~+3) and BB32 (~+3 x2)

10) How to navigate GW33, part 2

Then for instance wildcarding in GW33 and benching Sterling, Pogba, Rashford, Son, Doherty, Jiminez and a GK still allows for 8 players. Exact players of course may change, but we will know the DGW35 fixtures by then and will be on wildcard.

11) How to navigate GW33, part 3

Then moving into Phase 3, we will have 6 DGW players and two frees to build a DGW35 team with TC chip if you have it. The real question is will WC34/BB35 undo all of this? ie. Is DGW35 a better time to use the BB chip?

12) Salah takes up BB35 budget

It is easier (not risk free) to ditch Salah for one week in GW32 (TOT), but Liverpool face Cardiff in GW35. Keeping Salah makes a lot of sense then, but how much is that budget going to affect your BB team?

13) Potentially less enablers for DGW35

One thing is for sure, there will be less teams to choose when using the BB chip in GW35. NEW/WAT look good options, but only one will get a DGW. The rest don't look particularly appealing, apart from Wolves, which we would plan to keep.

14) Better SGW options (GW33-35) to bridge the gap

Liv (sou, CHE, car) and Ars (eve, wat, CRY) seem like good options to take on the later bench boosters, who ditch some of their players in favour of DGW-ers. These teams also have great fixtures right up until GW38.

15) Finally...

So generally, you will likely end up with similar player numbers across this hectic period, but have a better pool of players to choose from. You keep the players that have performed well and gone up in price and use chips in the weeks with the highest ceilings.

Unlikely many people will see this, but would be good to hear some arguments against any of the above as I'm still sitting with my chips at hand with all options still open. Appreciated if you made it this far down!

16) Likely that Man City DGW32 vs ful/CAR if they beat Swansea in the FA Cup. Man Utd DGW32 vs WAT/wol announced. Time to load up!