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1) $EA. Some updates on Apex Legends (awesome) and Anthem (disastrous). Apex Legends has consistently been a top 3 game on Twitch in the week after their tournament, continuing a superb launch. Here it is last night at 7 PM: 
2) Equally impressive is the fact that Apex Legends has 571k subs on Reddit after only 3 weeks which compares to Fortnite at 1m, CS:GO at 804k, Rainbow Six at 587k and Black Ops 4 at 297k. Reddit/Youtube are where players learn about the meta so community size says a lot.
3) Intersection of Twitch, Reddit and various Youtube metrics (37 NPS score for Apex Legends trailer vs. 16 for BlackOps4) is the best way to assess a game in the absence of sales data. Videogame co’s carefully monitor all of these metrics – for their own games and competitors.
4) @ZhugeEX is one of the best videogame analysts. His analysis of the potential for Apex Legends in China was interesting. I assessed Apex Legends as being unlikely to succeed there simply based on recent history, but he makes a compelling case to the contrary. Would be upside.
5) The back and forth vs. Fortnite is strange – they are quite different games and there is room for both of them and more in Battle Royale. i.e. Fortnite’s recent peak concurrent player disclosure. Execution from here is important for Apex Legends; game needs more content soon
6) Anthem. Wow. Disastrous might not be an adequate description. I thought guidance for 50% of Destiny was super conservative. Looks like it might have been super aggressive. Directionally accurate sources (gFK) suggest that Anthem sales are incredibly disappointing so far.
7) Asking Bioware – known for fantastic, story driven RPGs - to make a shared world shooter was apparently a bridge too far. Metacritic score of 60 for the PC version of Anthem is the lowest I can remember for a tentpole release. Even Infinite Warfare made it into the 70s.
8) I thought that the Apex Missions in Mass Effect Andromeda would’ve been good muscle building for Anthem. Instead, Anthem is effectively only Apex Missions – nothing more. Super disappointing after 18 mo's extra development time and all the hype. On to the next DragonAge.
9) Watching Bethesda struggle with ESO and Fallout76 and Bioware struggle with Anthem has been interesting. There is an enormous market for single player RPGs and yet these studios are forced to try to develop MMOs rather than make a Skyrim or ME sequel (or prequel for ME).
10) My concern on $EA has always been that they couldn’t make a great game outside of FIFA and Madden (and various niche franchises). Luckily for $EA, FIFA is arguably the best franchise in videogaming and $EA has the opp to create another great franchise with Apex Legends.
11) God forbid that $EA ever makes a good Star Wars game. Still disappointed they cancelled Amy Hennig’s SW RPG. Interesting that she attributed part of the cancellation to Frostbite, which was also identified as being a problem for the troubled ME: Andromeda by @jasonschreier
12) Amy Hennig: “we obviously had to take the Frostbite Engine, because there was the internal initiative to make sure that everybody was on the same technology, but it was an engine that was made to do first-person shooters not third-person traversal cinematic games.”
13) Having all the games on one engine sounds smart in boardrooms, investor meetings (easy for nongamers to understand) and C-level meetings but doesn’t seem to be working out well in practice. And Frostbite games are starting to look/feel the same. Life is all about tradeoffs.
14) Net, net $EA is reasonably likely to miss the quarter based upon Anthem unless Firestorm revitalizes BattlefieldV. I’m not sure it will really matter if Apex Legends continues on its current vector. No one should worry about monetization – it always follows engagement.
15) Sidenote – one of my all time favorite quotes about investing comes from a former colleague who upon being told that “everyone knew” a company was going to miss/beat said that “there is always someone who doesn’t know.”
