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BREXIT: The europhobic ERG have been pretty quiet of late. But we might know why. Let's look into our crystal balls... [1]
2/ let's say it's May the 1st. Article 50 was slightly extended (to allow all necessary legislation to pass through Parliament) and we have now left on may 1st. The ERG can take a few weeks off while the £ rollercoasters downhill and up (but mostly down).
3/ after a few weeks, it permeates the national consciousness that we are in a limbo period, in an approximation of the EU's customs union and single market "nothing has changed" so to speak.
4/ as the economic turbulence dissipates the ERG re-appear and say this is proof that project fear was just rubbish after all.
5/ the relieved eyes of Westminster drift off brexit into the subjects du jour (Kashmir?) and the ERG get to work behind the scenes... 
6/ they bring forward a motion that says that the PM must negotiate the new trading relationship based on her previously stated redlines *with no deviation* e.g. no cu, no EEA, no ecj etc. The government will find it difficult to oppose it.
7/ their eyes off the ball, both the moderates and former remainers will not see this for what it is, and not bother opposing it. The motion will pass and the Government's hands will be tied into negotiating either a specific form of brexit the EU won't agree to, or no deal.
8/ the only way to prevent this would be for moderates to unite around a vision now (either 🇮🇸➕ or Super⚡🇨🇭Switzerland or some combination thereof) and put forward a motion that makes this possible.
