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I wondered what all this was about in the Times, but it's just Brexiteers being their parochial selves again.
"Brexiteers offer peace terms to May"
Christ, it's grim.
"Brexiteers offer peace terms to May"
Christ, it's grim.
In case anyone's wondering, no they're not offering anything. They're just repeating the same old crap of the last three years.
Their "concession" is that they don't need the treaty rewritten any more, they just need . . . eugh . . . new bits putting in
Their "concession" is that they don't need the treaty rewritten any more, they just need . . . eugh . . . new bits putting in
Mogg's ERG nutters are willing to vote for the withdrawal agreement, but only on condition they get
1. A new clause to the treaty which overrides what's written in the treaty already
2. New legal advice that overturns the first legal advice
3. Unilateral exit from the backstop
1. A new clause to the treaty which overrides what's written in the treaty already
2. New legal advice that overturns the first legal advice
3. Unilateral exit from the backstop
The Brexiteers are at least right in some part. The backstop does mean that we're never going to leave, or if we do we'll have to break up the country and leave Northern Ireland behind.
The DUP knows that, which is why they'll never vote for it.
The DUP knows that, which is why they'll never vote for it.
So even before you start the government needs Labour votes.
There's maybe a dozen Labour MPs who are desperate to vote for it, we don't need to go over their names.
What they lose from the DUP they can win back from Labour.
But
There's maybe a dozen Labour MPs who are desperate to vote for it, we don't need to go over their names.
What they lose from the DUP they can win back from Labour.
But
On the face of it, that sort of looks like the Tories might just about win by a vote or two.
But again, but. That would still need every Tory MP to vote for the withdrawal agreement. Now the question is, are all Tory MPs going to vote for it?
No, they're not.
But again, but. That would still need every Tory MP to vote for the withdrawal agreement. Now the question is, are all Tory MPs going to vote for it?
No, they're not.
There won't be as many rebels as before. Not quite that dramatic. But still there is a solid and unbreakable knot of a couple of dozen Brexiteers who will never vote for it.
Take away 30 DUP and Brexiteers, add on a dozen Labour rebels, gives Theresa May at maximum 300.
She won't get anywhere near that many in real life, but 300 is the theoretic maximum.
Well, Labour and the SNP can already beat that between them. And then all the little parties.
She won't get anywhere near that many in real life, but 300 is the theoretic maximum.
Well, Labour and the SNP can already beat that between them. And then all the little parties.
Well, in the absence of a withdrawal agreement, the answer is what I've been saying for the last two years. Theresa May is going to resign, and the Tories are going to abandon the whole idea.
