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Right, I'm bored of seeing lots of EUsplainers, so let's try to clear up several basic misunderstandings that are still rife in the British debate:
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A key part of last night was the mis-reading (by gvt and backbenchers) of how the EU operates
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So let's consider three basic features of the EU that will shape what it does and whether/how it is flexible
Spoiler: you've seen the very large majority of the flex already, so don't hold your breath for any more
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Spoiler: you've seen the very large majority of the flex already, so don't hold your breath for any more
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The big factor is: does it fit the treaties?
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Look at your country and consider all the different views within it. Now put that together with 27 other countries, also with their internal debates/arguments.
This is not a recipe for unified action
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This is not a recipe for unified action
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The EU is not a unified actor, much less one that has a unified point of view.
But what it does have are rules for making decisions, embodied in the treaties
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But what it does have are rules for making decisions, embodied in the treaties
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To pick some relevant examples, COM negotiated Art.50 on behalf of member states, on basis of a mandate. No change in mandate = no scope for COM to go offering big changes. Likewise individual states can't bypass COM
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Of course, that particular rule also allows COM to legitimately say it can't give ground. Because it can't, even if it wanted, which it doesn't, because of the second basic rule:
the EU cares more about its members than about non-members
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the EU cares more about its members than about non-members
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For the purpose of this thread, the UK is a non-member. More precisely, it's a member trying to agree rules for when it's a non-member
Which will always makes its concerns secondary to those of remaining members
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Which will always makes its concerns secondary to those of remaining members
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Those other members have some very strong views, plus they have lots of other members keen to ensure those views are respected.
That's partly about solidarity, but more about not wanting a situation where the EU sells out its members
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That's partly about solidarity, but more about not wanting a situation where the EU sells out its members
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A failure to understand this leads to the "EU always gives in at last minute" trope that's been getting more airtime this week.
It 'gives in' to members (and actually, not always then, if it compromises the rules (see 1st point)), not to everyone
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It 'gives in' to members (and actually, not always then, if it compromises the rules (see 1st point)), not to everyone
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Case in point, when the Swiss voted in a referendum to limit free movement, the EU pulled a big chunk of its agreements until the Swiss found a solution, because that's what its agreed rules said it should do
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Which brings us nicely to point 3: the EU sees Brexit as a choice of the UK, so the UK must lead in resolving it
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While the EU is keen to find a settled outcome to the process, it simply does not consider it a job for it to work out all the problems the UK is having.
When proposals have come from the EU, it has been to protect members' interests, consistent with the treaty framework
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When proposals have come from the EU, it has been to protect members' interests, consistent with the treaty framework
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Last night's coordinated message from EU and members was precisely that it is for the UK to work out what it wants and how it might unblock matters.
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This doesn't mean it won't work to help in that, but within the limits already mentioned
Monday's Instruments/statements were exactly this: clarifying what had already been agreed in the WA, but not renegotiating the WA itself
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Monday's Instruments/statements were exactly this: clarifying what had already been agreed in the WA, but not renegotiating the WA itself
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To pull this together, it would be misguided to expect any more from the EU on changing the terms of the WA:
- It has not reopened the text (and won't, given the mandate);
- It has clarified that text;
- which leaves the Political Declaration, which MPs say isn't enough
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- It has not reopened the text (and won't, given the mandate);
- It has clarified that text;
- which leaves the Political Declaration, which MPs say isn't enough
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If MPs continue to apply their false notions about the EU, then they risk making choices that produce outcomes they don't want.
The EU doesn't work like Westminster, so don't treat it the same
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The EU doesn't work like Westminster, so don't treat it the same
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In sum: the more you understand your interlocutor, the better the chances you work out a mutual-acceptable outcome
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