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Right, let's try to work out what yesterday meant:
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Let's start with the basics: the WA is unchanged, so the core foundation hasn't moved (as expected)
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However, the addition of the extra instruments and declarations does add another layer of meaning to the WA's provisions
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I defer to my international law colleagues, but given my growing cynicism about whether there's anything reliable in international law, these new documents do have meaning and weight
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Put differently, by agreeing them, both parties give them substance, even if we could argue for hours about how precisely to define that
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Second key point is that yesterday was entirely for UK domestic consumption. EU agreed to help out, while trying not to undermine the edifice of the WA
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Hence, it's not only backstop/good faith provisions (for the ERG/DUP), but also the tweeks on the PD and protection of rights (for LAB): May has worked to bring home bits and bobs to hand out across the chamber
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Given that the priority is to close as much of the gap on MV2 as possible, this makes sense: it's less a fig leaf than a fig plant, albeit a very small one
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What has been striking so far is that last night saw a lot of holding positions: there could have been a lot worse reaction, especially given that the core text is unchanged
This morning has also been muted
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This morning has also been muted
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This suggests a number of things:
- some MPs have indeed been looking for fig-leaves;
- Cox's opinion will matter (again, for fig-leaf hunters);
- it might have been that the prospect of where this week's vote might head has also focused minds
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- some MPs have indeed been looking for fig-leaves;
- Cox's opinion will matter (again, for fig-leaf hunters);
- it might have been that the prospect of where this week's vote might head has also focused minds
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A key marker today will be to look at who's asking for some more time to consider the new texts and who's for pressing on: I'd assume the former might be the ones facing the harder choices
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Finally: Juncker was firm that extending past #EP19 requires UK elections.
That's a real pain to organise/campaign in
But, it would also remove a major barrier to subsequent extensions, if one were so minded. Calculation might be better a pain now than a roadblock later
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That's a real pain to organise/campaign in
But, it would also remove a major barrier to subsequent extensions, if one were so minded. Calculation might be better a pain now than a roadblock later
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So: uncertain law, but some things to play with politically. Q is whether gvt can make the most of it, when so seemingly fragile
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