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Beto’s such a weird candidate, and the press coverage of him is also so weird (obsessive but currently quite cynical but also prone to big mood swings) that I think it’s probably best to stick to objective benchmarks (e.g. polls, fundraising) when analyzing his chances.
Is he signing top staffers? Getting endorsements? Drawing big audiences? These are fairly objective metrics too. Obviously, I'm in favor of objective measures generally, but there are some candidates for whom the "narrative" can get especially detached from reality.
That's why IMO the fundraising numbers—not a great sign that he hasn't released them yet (although I guess we'll see)—are more important than the hot takes. And so are the polls over the next few weeks. It's not that they tell you *that* much, but I don't trust the alternatives.
