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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Beto’s such a weird candidate, and the press coverage of him is also so weird (obsessive but currently quite cynical but also prone to big mood swings) that I think it’s probably best to stick to objective benchmarks (e.g. polls, fundraising) when analyzing his chances.
Is he signing top staffers? Getting endorsements? Drawing big audiences? These are fairly objective metrics too. Obviously, I'm in favor of objective measures generally, but there are some candidates for whom the "narrative" can get especially detached from reality.
That's why IMO the fundraising numbers—not a great sign that he hasn't released them yet (although I guess we'll see)—are more important than the hot takes. And so are the polls over the next few weeks. It's not that they tell you *that* much, but I don't trust the alternatives.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I dunno, seems like a pretty big constraint on how much Barr's summary of the Mueller Report can deviate from full Mueller Report is that Mueller or others who worked on the investigation can leak through backchannels, or even talk on the record.
Obviously, there's *more* room to engage in spin to the extent that the Mueller Report isn't made public or is significantly redacted, so that's something to watch for. Although, that would also risk a pretty significant backlash.
I suppose I just think the idea that it's essential to get a good headline out there to control the narrative **even if it would cause a big backlash later on as more details are (inevitably) revealed** is overbought. I think the backlash would be bigger than people are assuming.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Some slightly longer thoughts on the political upshot of the Mueller report. (Or more precisely, Barr's letter about the Mueller report.) 53eig.ht/2Oq5dzP
Obviously the headline is "this is good for Trump".

There's a range of uncertainty, though, given that we don't have the report yet—the Barr memo leaves a lot of questions unanswered—that runs from roughly "quite good indeed for Trump" to "meh".
For me, the safest conclusion is that a lot of political downside risk was removed from Trump's portfolio, in part because he got through the investigation without firing Mueller or pardoning anyone.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It seems like when people imply that the Mueller Report won't mean "expectations", that really has 4 distinct causes, which are fairly important to distinguish—
1. Excessive hope/excitement from certain Democrats that Mueller would bring Trump down
2. Incautious reporting & false scoops
3. A lot of bad stuff getting normalized just because the investigation has gone on for so long
4. Deliberate goalpost-shifting by the WH and others
These causes aren't in any particular order and I don't know what order I'd put them in. All of them seem indisputably relevant. It strikes me as funny though that a lot of people who complain about 1 & 2 are extremely guilty of 4 (goalpost-shifting). Undoubtedly the reverse too.
Read 3 tweets

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John Hayward
@Doc_0
"Beto" will not be the Dem nominee. He can't keep up this "tell me who you want me to be" act all through the primary. Eventually he'll say something that triggers one of the lefty factions and they'll skin him alive as a privileged white male with a mostly blank resume.
If he manages to keep up his Tabula Rasa routine, the other Dems will pick him apart by feeding stories to the media. Slobbering coverage is the only thing he has going for him, and it can be taken away with one behind-the-scenes email blast from the DNC.
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