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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Charlie Munger: "Everybody with any sense at all knows that some businesses are better than others. What makes it difficult is they sell at higher prices. If all you had to do was figure out which businesses are better than others, even an idiot could make a lot of money."
Charlie Munger: "A pari-mutuel system at the racetrack is a market. Everybody there bets and the odds change based on what’s bet. That’s what happens in the stock market.” "What we want are favorable odds.”
“Playing poker in the Army honed my business skills. What you have to learn is to fold early when the odds are against you, or if you have a big edge, back it heavily because you don’t get a big edge often. Opportunity comes, but it doesn’t come often, so seize it when it does.”
This was my 300th blog post: google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…

Other posts by me on poker and investing:

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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy" 25 Mar 2019
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…. "The welfare contributions of the digital economy, characterized by the proliferation of new and free goods, are not well-measured by current national accounts."
MIT paper's Keywords: welfare measurement, GDP, Productivity, mismeasurement, productivity slowdown, free goods, online choice experiments, GDP-B. "GDP falls short because it doesn’t include the value of free online goods likecsocial media, search engines, maps videos and more."
Based on three large-scale online surveys: "consumers placed an average annual value of $1,173 on online video streaming services such as YouTube and Netflix.... the surveys reveal that online video use generates a significant amount of “consumer surplus." aei.org/publication/ne…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Charlie Munger once described airlines as “marginal cost with wings“.

"Wow Air Joins 20 Other Airlines That Folded in Just the Past Year" skift.com/2019/03/29/wow…
"The airline industry is a very, very competitive business,” Buffett said Thursday. “I don’t think it’s a suicidal business anymore, but it was for quite a while.” bloomberg.com/amp/news/artic…
"Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines Co., United Continental Holdings Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. All together, those stakes are worth $9 billion, almost 5 percent of Berkshire’s equity portfolio." google.com/amp/s/www.bloo…
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
The S&P 500 just posted its best quarterly gain since 2009 because that type of gain tends to happen sometimes. At other times it does not happen. This is true in both odd or even numbered years. qz.com/1584099/the-sp…
"A top presidential adviser is calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 index has soared 13.1% since the start of the year, its largest first-quarter gain since 1998." barrons.com/amp/articles/t…
"Information Technology, up 18.8 per cent, and Consumer Discretionary, up 15.2 per cent. Both are eyeing their best quarter since March quarter 2012." amp.ft.com/content/70a4c8…
Read 3 tweets

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Alexandra Erin
@alexandraerin
Hey, babies, I'm home from some errands and drinking some water, about to go do my daily exercise. When I'm done with that, I'm going to settle in with a thread on Trump's CPAC speech, by popular demand.

Not a line by line dive, it's too long and dense, but some key points.
Okay, so. Trump's CPAC speech. If you would like to read it because you want to know what he said but you can't stand the sound of his voice, or you want to make sure you're catching everything when he's just whoozing out words, here's a link. factba.se/transcript/don…
Like I said, I'm not going to do one of my deep dives but I am going to go over a few themes that I see as emerging from within it. I know I'm coming to this a bit late (sorry, I am still slow off the mark after being sick) so I'm going to focus on some overlooked areas first.
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Alexandra Erin
@alexandraerin
So, here's a thing. I articulated this to someone I was trying to engage with on an individual level but he wasn't actually there to Have Discourse, but I think it's worth expressing anyway.
If you're a kid on a playground and earlier you sat at The Wrong Table at lunch and now the kids are jeering you going, "You sat next to Smelly Sam! You're Smelly Sam's best friend! You should marry Smelly Sam!", their intent is to make fun of you, but Sam's getting it worse.
You're being made fun of in a way that repeats insults of Sam, and you're being made fun of to enforce the social order that makes sitting next to Sam or being friends with Sam wrong.
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Shyam Sekhar
@shyamsek
Investors think they run the world. There is a certain sense of confidence that gets exponential with success. And a certain defeatism that failure breeds and bestows. Both extremes are overrated positions. They are the #NotToGoTo places. Like #Munger ‘s place of death. 1/5
#Indians believe in burning and destroying what is no more useful. Our ego is the most difficult thing to burn- stubbornly incombustible. The richer we get the more difficult to willingly burn. But, nature finds a #NotToGoTo place where a tough #Ego flames out in a jiffy. 2/5
Just when you think destiny has bigger success awaiting you, the biggest failure will seed itself. Ironically, it is within you. Then, you work doubly hard to get out of that mindset. That #NotToGoTo place is the crystal maze of investing. Everybody visits that place sometime.3/5
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SEGA L’éveilleur®🚨
@segalink
“If the path before you is clear, you are probably on someone else’s.” Purpose leaves you in doubt of your sanity. It is never clear but requires your faith and trust in God. The peace you get is the assurance that all will be well. Pilots trust instrument clusters not clouds.⛱
One would have thought that Tweets with Childlock as this, simplified to the fullest will not need explanation but they sometimes confuse the simple folks one was trying to help from sinking in the linguistic territory abnitio.
There is no one with a meaningful purpose that has a clear path. You can only have clarity on your ability and capacity (if you have found yourself) and would need to trust God in the rest. Look at Moses, was his path clear before the read sea? Of course not. It seemed impossible
Read 19 tweets
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Brianna Sacks
@bri_sacks
#CampFire thread: Paradise was a disaster waiting to happen

“Years and years ago we knew we had a problem with that community," a Cal Fire chief said. They prepared, but the "fire moved more than twice as fast as was predicted under the worst scenarios"
buzzfeednews.com/article/briann…
Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke called the Camp fire, which practically destroyed the town of Paradise, “worse than any war zone I saw in Iraq.”

buzzfeednews.com/article/blakem…
This is how smokey the air is in Sacramento, which is about 90 miles south of Paradise
Read 52 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets

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