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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
"GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy" 25 Mar 2019
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…. "The welfare contributions of the digital economy, characterized by the proliferation of new and free goods, are not well-measured by current national accounts."
MIT paper's Keywords: welfare measurement, GDP, Productivity, mismeasurement, productivity slowdown, free goods, online choice experiments, GDP-B. "GDP falls short because it doesn’t include the value of free online goods likecsocial media, search engines, maps videos and more."
Based on three large-scale online surveys: "consumers placed an average annual value of $1,173 on online video streaming services such as YouTube and Netflix.... the surveys reveal that online video use generates a significant amount of “consumer surplus." aei.org/publication/ne…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
The tallest of the tall poles for space communications like AMZN's Kuiper is ironically on the ground. The antennas need to (1) track moving satellites; (2) be capable of dealing with millimeter wave frequencies and (3) be affordable to enough customers. cnbc.com/2019/04/05/jef…
Remember your geometry. The antenna's aperture looks smaller when viewed at the angle created when a satellite is first available to communicate and when about to leave. Look at the jobs posted on the Kuiper web site and you prominently see: senior and junior antenna engineers.
There are good reasons why communications systems started out at lower radio frequencies. But easy to use spectrum is occupied and more hertz are needed anyway. Millimeter wave frequencies involve tradeoffs that require new technological approaches.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Marc Andreessen describes the approach of a venture capitalist as “buying a portfolio of long–dated, deeply–out-of-the-money call options.”

Munger: "What we want are the favorable odds. We figure the volatility over time will take care of itself."
"You may consciously purchase a risky investment if you believe your gain, weighted for probabilities, considerably exceeds your loss, comparably weighted, and if you can commit to a number of similar, but unrelated opportunities. Most venture capitalists employ this strategy" WB
Jobs “Stay hungry, stay foolish" probably meant “Be crazy but retain the rationality of choosing the upper bound when you see it. Any trial and error can be seen as the expression of an option, so long as one is capable of identifying a favorable result and exploiting it." Taleb
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
"Everybody with any sense at all knows that some [teams] are better than others. If all you had to do was figure out which [teams] are better than others, even an idiot could make a lot of money."

"We're always looking an insight which gives us a big statistical advantage."
"Ninety-eight percent of the time, our attitude toward the market is [that] we're agnostics. We don't know."

"It doesn't help us merely for favorable odds to exist. It takes a mispriced opportunity that we're smart enough to recognize. And that combination doesn't occur often."
"Betting on the quality of a business is better than betting on the quality of management. If you do get an occasional opportunity to get into a wonderful business being run by a wonderful manager [and] you don't load up, it's a big mistake."
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
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Teresa Parrish
@SLObot60
#IDES ofMARCH THREAD:
GOT THIS? #NoTaxReturns = #Mobster
MT @CREWcrew: Your daily reminder that #Trump is the first President Elected since #Nixon to refuse to release his #taxreturns, and any payments from Russia remain secret tinyurl.com/yyda3bo3 and we are at War w #ICC
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BY DESIGN #ICC is the enemy of West Civ. They are global promoter of #homophobia #misogyny #racism. IT IS IN THEIR MOB CODE and most are BORN into it. BELIEVE And Share. They are Maggots ON Society and Exposure Weakens them.
@CREWcrew #IDESofMARCH THREAD:
JOURNOS MUST READ CJC #POKE THE BEAR published 11/3/17 Something was wrong. At first, it was just instinct. During the GOP primaries, things weren’t adding up for us with Trump. tinyurl.com/ybuk3z6v @JamesFourM @ninaandtito @lauferlaw @carolecadawalla
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Per Bylund
@PerBylund
There is severe confusion about the meaning of #economicgrowth. Many seem to mistakenly think that it has to do with #GDP or producing stuff. It does not. Economic growth means that an economy's ability to satisfy people's wants, whatever they are--that is, to produce wellbeing--
increases. GDP is a rather terrible way of capturing this using [public] statistics, and is thus corrupted by those benefitting from corrupting such figures. GDP is not growth. Likewise, having more stuff in stores isn't growth. Producing increasing quantities of stuff that
nobody is willing to buy is the very opposite of economic growth: it is wasting our limited productive capacity. But note the word 'willing'. Wellbeing is not about [objective] needs, but about being able to escape felt uneasiness. It can turn out to be right or wrong, but that's
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Arvind Virmani
@dravirmani
#GDPbkser 1/n Whenever the GDP base is updated for a fast growing economy, the weights on fast growing sub-sectors increase & on slow growing sub-sectors decrease. The new series therefore shows lower growth rt than old in yrs prior to new base & raises it for yrs post new base.2
#GDPbkser (2/n): If memory serves, historically avg GDP gr rt in yrs btwn old & new base yr has been adjusted down by an avg of -0.5% to -0.75%! The current revision is ~2x the historical avg! Thus reweighting would have lowered past GDP gr rt from 8% to 7% to 7.5%! ...3/
#GDPbkser (3/n) So what needs greater analysis is the rest of decrease in GDP growth rate ie the reduction not explained by re-weighting (~-0.65% ). Some points made by critics are either only partially valid or invalid. (a)Comparing chng in nominal gr with chng in real gr...4/
Read 9 tweets
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Author Vicki Hinze
@vickihinze
Get a #free copy of Her Deepest Fear here: dl.bookfunnel.com/loxztdnaaq
Hopefully the Amazon glitch will be fixed soon!
#books #reading #suspense
There's an #Amazon glitch. @Regan Black's final book in the Breakdown series WHAT SHE KNEW and her short read, TRUST NO ONE and my Her Deepest Fear were caught up in it and can't be bought so I'm giving away Her Deepest Fear to hold readers over. dl.bookfunnel.com/loxztdnaaq #reading
@PeggyWebbAuthor 's Just One Look is snagged up in the glitch also! Hold tight, readers. They're working on it! #kindle #amazon
Read 4 tweets
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Paul Huettner, CFA
@Paul_M_Huettner
1/ THREAD

I'm sorry, but this absurd @business article on $TSLA just has to be called out. I have no idea what these writers (@n_rausch21 & @claireeboston) were thinking. @danahull's involvement is less clear.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/

First the headline. a) while I agree there is some brand equity in the name, I would hardly call it a "crown jewel". Very few companies brand name is their crown jewel (Tiffany's is a big one that comes to mind). b) Factories have little value to new lenders.
3/
a) Random analyst to pull out of the hat there.

b) Tesla doesn't have that many hard assets in its back pocket. Its inventory along with Fremont are all eligible collateral (if pledged) to the ABL per Amendment #9 and can't be pledged to 2 lenders.
Read 10 tweets

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