, 14 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
[THREAD] I have a lot of thoughts about the information provided about Mueller’s report so far. I am trying to be very careful about knee-jerk reactions, and want to read and watch before making more informed judgements. But I would like to share a few initial thoughts [1/14]
Mueller’s report, & specifically the facts that underpin it, are EXTREMELY complex. It‘s not possible to boil that complexity down into a couple pages & capture the full connotations. The AG would certainly err on the side of underreporting CONCERNS as opposed to firm conclusions
Barr’s letter said @realDonaldTrump was not involved in a crime RELATED TO Russian election interference. It is relevant that it does not say Trump was not involved in a crime, PERIOD. It narrowed down the statement [3/14]
Also, there is a large difference between filing criminal charges and continuing national security investigations. National security investigations often follow potential threats for years, and can even help to interfere with adversaries’ plans, even without charges [4/14]
Mueller’s report specifically said that while charges wouldn’t be filed against Trump *by him,* the evidence “does not exonerate him.” I‘m confident Mueller would not have written that phrase if there had not been significant evidence of OTHER criminal activity on Trump’s behalf
I was in the room with Mueller when he argued years ago that domestic intelligence and law enforcement missions should remain together in the FBI instead of separating into different agencies similar to UK’s MI5 and MI6 [6/14]
There were many reasons for that, but one of the examples Mueller repeatedly emphasized was that financial crimes often had harsher penalties than national security crimes, and that it could be more effective to charge national security threats with financial crimes, if present
The Southern District of New York (SDNY) has multiple ongoing criminal investigations that already spun off from Mueller’s investigation, mostly focused on potential FINANCIAL crimes of Cohen, the Trump Campaign, the Trump Organization, and @realDonaldTrump personally [8/14]
Financial crimes have a paper trail, can often be conclusively proven, and often have very harsh penalties. National security crimes by their nature have a great deal of indirection and avoidance of documentation, and tend to be harder to prove beyond a reasonable doubt [9/14]
It is VERY consistent with the legal approach that I personally heard Mueller endorse to investigate thoroughly, refer national security threats to the Intelligence Community to be mitigated, and refer evidence of financial crimes for prosecution. HE DID THAT TO SDNY [10/14]
I believe if and when we see the full report and supporting evidence, we will find that Mueller found extensive evidence of financial crimes, handed them off, and is confident SDNY will pursue and charge those [11/14]
The Intelligence Community is likely to still have ongoing cases investigating the possibility that @realDonaldTrump is acting as a Russian asset, even if it doesn’t rise to the level that justifies prosecution. Mueller’s investigation ending does not mean those are over [12/14]
@realDonaldTrump will not be charged “by the state” (referring to the federal government.) Given the wording that we’ve seen so far, and what I know of Mueller from working with him on a daily basis, my money says @realDonaldTrump WILL be charged by SDNY after he is out of office
And there is a large difference between criminal indictment, where a prosecutor believes she can prove beyond a reasonable doubt, & the bar required for political impeachment. Once Congress sees the full detail, even GOP support for impeachment may grow, regardless of indictments
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