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An election thread today. I don't do numbers; I'm not a psephologist. But I do understand strategic posturing. More specifically I'm intrigued by the behavior of the Congress of late. It is clear that their desire to not enter into coalitions across states is entirely by design.
What could be the motivation behind this? A) 2019 is a complete write off and they want to preserve their identity even if the means a total collapse in seats. To be in a coalition and end up with 50-75 seats again is an utter disaster for them even if they keep Modi out.
B) They are quite confident of their position in states where they are directly against the BJP. If they blunt the BJP in those states, the MGB is likely to take care of the BJP in the other states. I think this is their thinking and it is by no means baseless in the way many
seem to believe. And this also means that they are effectively in a coalition, without having formally entered one. But it does leave the possibility of Amit Shah being Amit Shahe after 23rd May. But that's a different matter for the purposes of this thread.
They believe - and probably correctly - that they have a decent number of voters in Rajasthan Gujarat MP Chhattisgarh Jharkhand Delhi Punjab. They will expect to split seats with the BJP in these states. They will expect to do very well in Karnataka by collating their votes with
that of the JD(U). Similarly I think they expect to do very well with the DMK in TN. The outlier state for them is Maharashtra, where the BJP has responded to a threat by ceding more seats to the Sena. That combine is still unlikely to repeat their 2014 performance.
Interestingly, the Congress is raising different issues in different states based on what is more effective locally. They aren't actually projecting an overall national message other than Modi is evil personified. If their campaign in 2014 was dead in the water, it is actually
quite responsive and motivated this time around. Remember that the goal of opposition unity is being touted as the only way to stop Modi/BJP. But there are many ways to skin a cat. The way the opposition parties appear to have chosen is for the Congress to blunt the BJP in 1v1
contests across the north and the west. And the SP-BSP tackle them in UP. The BJP can't legitimately be planning to make up that much ground through Odisha/KCR/AIADMK/NE. So please don't believe those projecting that the Congress is dormant in 2019. They are very much in the game
And I think this reality is borne out in the way the BJP has reacted too. They have shown hunger and alacrity in reducing the number of BJP candidates in favor of alliance partners. They have also named their candidates early and will be in full swing. They know the enthusiasm
among their voters is nowhere near that in 2014. And the outlier percentage of 31% can't be considered their base until it is consolidated in at least this and another election. Unlike 2014, this one is no walkover. So let's see how things pan out. To my mind, the most impressive
campaign/electoral strategy that the Modi/Shah combine have come up with in the last 5 years was in Karnataka. Unlucky not to get a full majority in the face of a popular CM in a southern state. Really rattled Congress's cage. Their clawback in Rajasthan in the last days and
the photo finish in MP also suggests that their poll machinery is in fine shape. Anyway, brace yourselves. This is going to be a humdinger of an election.
One other thing. The campaign will now start. We'll get a feel for the whole thing soon. Modi on the campaign trail is a formidable opponent. But I do think BJP's messaging has to be multi-pronged - can't just be Modi the Messiah messaging.
Also on other factor that has just come to my notice: apparently there's a skirmish still ongoing on the border. Apparently we're inflicting plenty of casualties on the LoC.
