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1/ Bloomberg's @tsrandall worries that his Model 3 tracker number, which tracks production of the cars, might be a bit too high this quarter. The article is notable for some key omissions & distortions. Worse, it asks the wrong question. Link at the end of this short thread.
2/ Let's start with how Randall asks the wrong question. The premise of his article is that the production rate of the Model 3 is important. It's not. It's demand that's important. Simply put, $TSLA must sell 400k cars per year at high ASPs just to break even.
3/ To achieve even 360k deliveries, $TSLA has to deliver 90k cars per quarter. In other words, just about match the 90,966 it achieved in Q4. But remember, in Q4, there were lots of high-margin S & X deliveries, plus LR AWD & Performance Model 3s.
4/ I have no reliable idea about how many cars $TSLA will deliver in Q1, but of four things I am confident: First, it will be fewer cars than Q4, as Tesla will strain to reach even 80k. But that's not the worst of it...
5/ Second, $TSLA in Q1 has exhausted the European high-margin Model 3 order book. I'll put it out there: the European order book number on Jan 30 was very close to (or lower than) the number David Tamberrino mentioned on the Jan 30 conference call. Elon likely fibbed.
6/ Third, $TSLA's move to the SR Model 3 (still not available, btw; if you try to buy it, you'll be met with a determined up-sell effort to the SR+ or a LR model) and SR+ Model 3 in the US is an act of desperation. Those are low-margin or no-margin cars. caranddriver.com/news/a26948744…
7/ Fourth, demand for the $TSLA Model S and Model X has completely collapsed. Cannibalization by the Model 3? Competition from Jag & Audi? Imminence of EVs from Mercedes & Porsche? Probably all of the above. 
8/ Bottom line: even if $TSLA could deliver 90k cars in Q1, those deliveries would be at an ASP well below that of Q4. Got that? Tesla would lose money even delivering 90k cars. And Q2 will be much worse. For another reason Randall tries to skip past...
9/ Here's Randall on how the Model 3 achieved sales records. He never once notes, however, that to do this, $TSLA crammed three years of order backlog into one quarter and that these results are OBVIOUSLY unsustainable.
10/ Another revealing omission: Randall never mentions the terrible Model 3 delivery numbers in the US during January & February. Yes, they're InsideEVs estimates, but likely to be close. And, an even more telling omission...
11/ Randall never mentions the halving of the US federal income tax subsidy that became effective Jan 1. Had he mentioned that, he would have had to admit that $TSLA is highly dependent, in the US and everywhere else, on subsidies. Tesla is the All-Time Corporate Welfare Queen.
12/ Finally, Randall boasts about close his Model 3 Tracker has been to actual delivery numbers later reported by $TSLA. He neglects to mention that on at least one occasion, he made a huge last-minute adjustment to his number to get close.
13/ Hey, Tom, why did you make that adjustment? What communications caused you to do it? From whom? I wish @business would require Tom to go open kimono on all his communications with Musk & $TSLA. Before a subpoena from the SEC or a private litigant forces the issue. <fin>
14/ Oops. Here's the link. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
