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My prediction on #indicativevotes2 and the next step: if we see a majority or a close-to majority for one or more of the motions today (other than the confirmatory referendum one) then by pairing it with a referendum it *will* command a majority.
So Theresa May will really be up against it. She has to find some way of stopping or delaying indicative vote 3 (likely to be Wednesday) because once there's a solid majority for "X + referendum" her goose is cooked. So we may hear the GE klaxon go off in short order.
Except... things may not be that simple (are they ever with Brexit?) She would need to get 2/3 of the HOC to go along with a GE vote. But many Tories won't want to trade 3 more years of powerish for an unknown future.
So that may give us the unprecedented absurdity of Theresa May orchestrating a vote of no confidence against her own government in some way. Because a VONC only requires a 50% majority, not a 2/3 one like a GE would. And it's hard to imagine her winning a VONC she organised.
What would that do to Brexit? Who knows? There would be a 14 day period of hyper-uncertainty as the HOC tried to coalesce around a new Government. What anyone could do during that 14-day period seems very much up in the air.
But of course we've got less than 14 days to go until Brexit. So it will be edge of the seat, nail-biting stuff. Will the courts need to get involved? Would the Queen? We may see another bucketload of history made in the next fortnight.
Coming back to the indicative vote process. If TM doesn't manage to stop it in its tracks, she's then got the terrible dilemma of trying to work out which part of the Tory party to most irritate with her stance going forward. Whatever she does will upset many people.
