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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The Mueller Report hasn't been a game changer for Trump. At least not his approval ratings, anyway.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-e…
And, yeah, part of the reason it hasn't been a game changer is because no one has seen it yet (DiD yOu ReAd ThE sToRy?).
Kind of a lot going on here. On the one hand, it takes a lot to move Trump's numbers. On the other hand, the Muller report itself hasn’t been released, and from what they know about it the public thinks it's consistent with their priors. Also, they don't care about Russia much.
And, yeah, I continue to think this public opinion data makes the THIS IS A WORSE MEDIA FAILURE THAN IRAQ/WMD!!!! crowd look like they had a pretty distorted view of how Americans actually saw the Russiagate story.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Voters in AOC's district, NY-14, thought by a 57-32 margin that it was a bad thing when Amazon cancelled its plans to build a headquarters in Queens. bit.ly/2KoXaVW
This reaction was predictable given that the Amazon deal was popular thoughout Queens/NYC ahead of time. There hadn't been a poll of AOC's district in particular but she was engaged in wishful thinking if she thought killing the deal would be seen as a win by her constituents.
Overall, a cautionary tale for the left* not to just listen to the loudest or most adjacent voices in the room. Polls are good to get a broader cross-section of public opinion.



* The Trump right and the Schultz center have lots of issues with this too.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In it's poll of Democratic voters in California this morning, Quinnipiac asked Democrats who they think is most electable (most able to beat Trump), which makes for an interesting comparison against which candidate they say is their first choice.
Notice something here? The only two candidates who do better on electability perceptions than on first-choice preference are Biden and Beto. Bernie basically also holds steady. The women and people of color and the gay candidate all lose quite a bit of ground, though.
So one answer to "why are the white guys polling so well when Democrats are so diverse?" is that voters see them as more "electable". But that may change as voters learn more about the other candidates & they win primaries, etc.

(Also, sorry for it's/its typo in 1st post. 😳)
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I don't know anything about exit polls in Israel.

In the US, exit polls in the are a lot better than reputed, but unless you give caveats about them, reporters treat them as The God's Honest Truth—so maybe it's best if everyone thinks they're bad or else everyone goes overboard.
FWIW here's my recollection about how good early exit polls were in recent US elections:

2018 midterms — mostly quite good
2016 general election — bad!
2016 primaries — mostly fairly good, caught a few surprises that polls missed
2014 midterms — quite good, caught GOP wave early
2012 general election — pretty good in states, but were off on national popular vote
2012 primaries — up-and-down; tended to overrate Romney's vote
2008 — my memory is fuzzy, I recall them having some problems in the Dem. primaries but mostly being good in the general
Read 3 tweets

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Lola Netty
@TXTrumpette89
Report: Attorney General Barr Gave Mueller Permission to Indict Trump's 3 Adult Children & Jared Kushthegatewaypundit.com/2019/03/report…0V6k via @gatewaypundit
Re_read drop:
>>[#MUELLER] sealed #indictments installed [DC] prior to [Rod #Rosenstein] loss of >>power?
>>Sealed indictments [DC][#blockade last resort] installed post >>#SESSIONS depart assumption? https://t.co/UPFb4FOgtc
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>>Sealed indictment count [DC] pre_WHITAKER assumption?
>>Power of AG BARR?
>>Can a sealed indictment be pulled post filing?

Sealed Indictmedrive.google.com/drive/folders/…ogle Drive Page

https://t.co/wVv2nlEmz1
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Maggie Koerth-Baker
@maggiekb1
What is now happening to all the recycling that used to go to China, before they cracked down on contamination?

TL;DR spoiler -- a whole crap ton of it is going to landfills.
There's been some really good reporting done lately about the other countries that are now buying recycling exports that used to go to China. @latimes has a great piece about the Malaysian recycling industry -- and the mess our recycling causes there.latimes.com/world/asia/la-…
But in these stories, I kept seeing charts that would show stuff like this. Malaysia and other countries are buying more American recycling. But, like, not remotely enough to make up for what used to go to China. So what about the leftover?
Read 7 tweets
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(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
I'll put this in article form, but Tuesday's results seem to prove three important things... Two are very bad for Trump for 2020. One is better, but doesn't come close to eliminating the other two... Let's go through them...
1. There had been a ton of talk about how Trump won in 2016 despite being so unpopular. Therefore, it didn't matter that he was unpopular now. People said approval/favorable wasn't a good metric for capturing Trump. (2/???)
I had argue that this argument missed one very important fact: Hillary Clinton was very unpopular in 2016. When she wasn't part of the equation, Trump's unpopularity would shine through. fivethirtyeight.com/features/bad-n…
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Porpentina (Tina)
@porpentina2017
I just read this article on companies that provide voter services for states and it is worse than I thought it would be.

Spoiler Alert: I am going to break this article down bit by bit and explain why things are "bad".
#UnhackTheVote

fivethirtyeight.com/features/russi…
The election system is decentralized. Each state runs their own elections and the federal government can't tell the states how to run their elections. There's no centralized system for someone to break into, no one way to run an election so the diversity can be a strength.
21 states (that's 42%) were hit by the Russian hackers and they were successful in at least one state. The federal government and the states have done almost nothing to prevent this from happening again.This is thanks, in part, to the decentralized nature of the election systems.
Read 15 tweets
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Alamo_on_the_rise
@AlamoOnTheRise
Trump: Day 558
-Wants Sessions 2 End "Witch Hunt"
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-Told 4,229 False/Misleading Claims
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Add...
Day 663 since Donald Trump admitted to sexual assault — yet he’s still in the Oval Office
Add...
Day 515 of NO EVIDENCE produced by Trump that his phones were tapped by Obama.

The FISA warrant Trump referenced targeted Carter Page. #fakenews #TrumpLies
Read 57 tweets
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Buckeye Dreamer
@DreamerBuckeye
More than a third of recipients (37%) reported difficulties paying DACA’s application fees ($465 total). Respondents who are currently financially insecure (measured by whether they were unable to pay bills at some point in the last year) #Dreamers escholarship.org/uc/item/6b56v2…
"In total, we surveyed 502 young adults, including 452 DACA recipients, and 50 undocumented youth who had not received DACA. Our survey took place two years after DACA’s initiation, with the goal of exploring the longer-term impacts of the program." migrationcluster.ucdavis.edu/sites/g/files/…
Why can't i find one website where I can read all this? oy vey...
Retail Produce Prices Without Illegal Farmworkers
How Much Is that Tomato in the Window?
cis.org/Report/Retail-…
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