I'll put this in article form, but Tuesday's results seem to prove three important things... Two are very bad for Trump for 2020. One is better, but doesn't come close to eliminating the other two... Let's go through them...
1. There had been a ton of talk about how Trump won in 2016 despite being so unpopular. Therefore, it didn't matter that he was unpopular now. People said approval/favorable wasn't a good metric for capturing Trump. (2/???)
I had argue that this argument missed one very important fact: Hillary Clinton was very unpopular in 2016. When she wasn't part of the equation, Trump's unpopularity would shine through. fivethirtyeight.com/features/bad-n…
Well what happened on Tuesday? The 2018 was more a referendum on an incumbent president than any midterm since exit polls started asking about presidential approval. Trump's approval rating mattered a TON. cnn.com/2018/11/07/pol…
2. The slightly good news for Trump is that many outlets will first report the adult, not registered or likely voter approval ratings for the president. That's fine, but as I have noted previously, it's probably not the one that matters for elections. cnn.com/2018/05/10/pol…
You want to look at the registered/likely voter approval ratings for Trump... Trump's net approval rating before the election among them per 538? -9 (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…) IN the exit polls, it was?... You guessed it -9.
That was higher than it was among all adults, but it's still not very good. And if it holds for 2020, the president will be in major, major trouble. *I should note: Democrats who want to take advantage of this should not nominate someone is disliked by the public.
3. Prior to 2016, there was a big discussion about the Democrats big blue wall in the Midwest giving them an electoral college advantage. I wrote that was a trash argument (fivethirtyeight.com/features/democ…). EC advantages can change from election to election.
Then after 2014, I wrote there was a major sign that the Democrats had big Midwest problems. It turns out that held for 2016, as Trump scaled and climbed over that blue wall. fivethirtyeight.com/features/somet…
Well my good friend Mr. Nathaniel Read Silver took at a look at the 2018 results through the lens of the electoral college... And found that Trump's supposed electoral college advantage may not actually be there for him in 2020.
Here's the link for that fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2…... Now obviously this stuff is dependent on who the Democrats nominate... but there's plenty of reason to think the electoral college/pop vote split of 2016 won't hold in 2020.
So how can Trump survive in 2020?... Two ways: 1. He has got to get his approval rating into the high 40s instead of the low to mid 40s. That is of course very possible with the economy. The problem for Trump is that he hasn't done it at a single point in his presidency.
2. Democrats decide to nominate someone who is electoral poison. IDK who that person is... but if the 2020 election is about Trump and his approval rating is what it is today, he will lose.
