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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Voters in AOC's district, NY-14, thought by a 57-32 margin that it was a bad thing when Amazon cancelled its plans to build a headquarters in Queens. bit.ly/2KoXaVW
This reaction was predictable given that the Amazon deal was popular thoughout Queens/NYC ahead of time. There hadn't been a poll of AOC's district in particular but she was engaged in wishful thinking if she thought killing the deal would be seen as a win by her constituents.
Overall, a cautionary tale for the left* not to just listen to the loudest or most adjacent voices in the room. Polls are good to get a broader cross-section of public opinion.



* The Trump right and the Schultz center have lots of issues with this too.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In his conclusion to Volume I (coordination), Mueller says that the Trump campaign was "in some instances" receptive to Russian offers to coordinate.

That's something Barr left out of his letter, which mentioned the offers but not the campaign's receptiveness.
Overall, the impression one gets from Vol. I is there was rather explicit flirting between the Trump campaign and Russia, even some making out, but it was a sloppy night and they didn't get around to hooking up, although they might have if circumstances had been a bit different.
Again, the biggest possible exception—where there may have been hooking up?—seems to be Manafort sharing internal polling w/ Kilimnik, who the report says has "ties to Russian intelligence". Mueller can't account for Manafort's purpose in sharing the data or what happened to it.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's more than a bit ironic that the Media Reckoning people were criticizing the media for jumping to premature conclusions.
Part of the dynamic here is that Barr, having been a longtime fixture on the DC scene, was seen as a representative of Politics As Normal / The Good Old Days by the mainstream media rather than as a Crazy TrumpWorld Person—and so was given a lot of credibility and leeway to spin.
Of course, some of the loudest voices in the Media Reckoning narrative were not in the mainstream media—but instead certain "adversarial journalists" who you'd think would be exactly the people to warn against taking the AG's spin at face value. IDK what the hell happened there.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This is my impression (so far) too. It seems like if you're really surprised in either direction by what's in the Mueller Report, you should probably re-evaluate your news consumption habits.
To be slightly more precise, my impression is the Mueller Report is very much in line with pre-Barr Letter priors, i.e. if 0 was the worst possible report for Trump and 10 was the best possible one, it's like a 5, whereas Barr made it seem like a 7 or 8.
Corollary: People who had their priors greatly influenced by the Barr memo or who treated it as a huge game-changer aren't looking super smart today.
Read 3 tweets

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Leah McElrath
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Amazon wasn’t negotiating in good faith with NYC.

They were trying to craft a real estate deal disguised as benevolent job “creation” without providing infrastructure support.

For those not familiar with Long Island City, it’s prime waterfront with amazing views of Manhattan.
New York is HUGE.

There are ample locations where a wealthy company like Amazon could come in and build a headquarters to uplift and economically benefit both itself and the surrounding community.

Further east in Queens, the Bronx, large swaths of Brooklyn, Staten Island.
Amazon wanted *this* location because they knew the value of the real estate would multiply an unfathomable number of times simply by being developed, unlike some other areas.

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BREAKING: Amazon says it has canceled plans to build a headquarters in NYC.
Amazon: “A number of state and local politicians have made it clear that they oppose our presence and will not work with us to build the type of relationships that are required to go forward with the project...”

Latest: nbcnews.to/2X1wGMa
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Once you get to Lewis and Harris (pop. 22,000), you've got a pretty wide open landscape in front of you.
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