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Robert Peston
@Peston
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Indicative votes are after all coming back tomorrow. Please contain your excitement
All your favourite options will be with us again - customs union, Common Market 2.0, confirmatory referendum, revocation - with a promise this time of proper cross party cooperation. And with the aim of forcing the winner on the government on Monday.
I am sure this third round of indicative votes will clarify where we are going just as much as the last two did. And of course it is genius to have final (if it is final) sifting of winner on Monday, well after EU leaders would need a proposal from UK for the council on Weds...
that will decide whether we are delaying Brexit again or leaving with no deal on 12 April. In case you were in doubt, it is all going to be fine. Or not, perhaps
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Robert Peston
@Peston
This matters. The International Commission of Labour’s National Policy Forum - which consists of MPs, trade unionists, MEPs, and constituency representatives - has just voted UNANIMOUSLY that Labour’s manifesto for EU elections should pledge to hold a confirmatory referendum...
on any Brexit deal. My sources say there were no dissenting voices. And yesterday all Labour MEPs voted in precisely the same unanimous way, for a referendum. Tomorrow Labour’s Trade Union Liaison Organisation is likely to inform the party’s ruling NEC that its big...
union supporters - including Unison, the GMB and USDAW, but obviously NOT Unite - also want a referendum. So it is increasingly hard to see how Labour’s ruling NEC can next Tuesday, at its emergency meeting ignore such widespread membership pressure and do anything but adopt...
Read 5 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
Gordon Bennett. In spite of Tory MPs telling @theresa_may to give them a “clear” schedule for her departure, I can find none who think she will volunteer to go any time soon. So they assume that after the EU elections, in which they expect their party to be humiliated, the...
‘22 executive will at that painful juncture change the rules to allow an immediate vote of no confidence in her and therefore a leadership election. Which seems plausible since the executive supposedly divided by 9 votes to 7, with two abstentions, to stick to the current...
system of no more than one no-confidence ballot per annum. In other words, if the European elections force a commonsense extrapolation that vast numbers of Tory MPs face losing their seats and livelihoods, only a tiny swing on the ‘22 exec gives them the opportunity to...
Read 4 tweets
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Robert Peston
@Peston
The 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs have inflicted yet another humiliation on @theresa_may. Their committee led by Graham Brady have asked her to set out a “schedule and timetable” for her departure in all circumstances, ie whether or not her Brexit deal is...
approved by MPs. And Brady reminded Tory MPs of their right to send him letters calling for her to go. This is not the same as insisting she name a precise date for her resignation. But it is a wafer’s wafer away from that. I asked Brady if there was any...
precedent for Tory MPs putting pressure like this on a serving PM to resign and he could not think of one.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Customs union (Clarke) Lost by 3

Referendum (Kyle) Lost by 12

Common market 2.0 (Boles) Lost by 21
If you put those together we're about 10 MPs away from customs union, single market and second referendum. In other words, 10 MPs away from revoking Article 50.
We are on the cusp of victory. All we need is a dozen more Tories to come round. And the next few days should finally produce a remain parliament.

We are very, very close
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Quick thread on why Labour MPs who are opposing softer Brexit options on the basis that they are "not the kind of Brexit my voters wanted" & similar args are misunderstanding sentiment in their seats (& more widely) in important ways 1/?
2/? Firstly, such Lab MPs very commonly think that a Leave majority in their seat overall reads across into a Leave majority among Labour. As I explain here, this is usually a mistake:
3/? Secondly, such MPs will often claim control of imm is a red line for their voters so they cannot accept any deal w/ freedom of movement. That involves two mistakes. Firstly, public sentiment on imm has moved in a sharply positive direction since 2016: medium.com/@robfordmancs/…
Read 9 tweets
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Shaun Lawson
@shaunjlawson
***BLOCKHEAD UPDATE*** This is a time for strong people and stout hearts. For the great and good of Westminster to do their duty and save Britain from the unprecedented mess it finds itself in. Or, in the case of a few Labour MPs, to limbo dance under a lower bar than ever.
The other day, I introduced my followers to Labour's blockheads. A small group of rogue MPs who are simply not for turning. A small group of MPs who bring their party and their country into disrepute.
Last night's indicative votes give us far more information about this rogue's gallery. We even have a top five Labour blockhead list. Who are the (In)Famous Five? This motley crew; this shower of self-righteous saboteurs? As they used to say on Top Of The Pops, take it away...
Read 22 tweets
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Tom Kibasi
@TomKibasi
THREAD

If parliament backs a customs union in the indicative votes, why shouldn’t it back May’s Withdrawal Agreement?

First, let’s be clear: the backstop is a misleading name. In the absence of any known alternative, it isn’t a fall-back but rather the default.

(1/11)
Given the absence of alternatives for the Irish border, and the fact that the withdrawal agreement has no mechanism for exit and allows only for a one-time extension of the standstill transition, the backstop must be assessed as the future destination (see Robbins, O.)

(2/11)
But for advocates of a soft Brexit—including the Labour party—why should this matter?

The problem is the lack of control—too little attention has been paid to the risks of being within a customs union without a say.

(3/11)
Read 12 tweets
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Thomas Colson
@tpgcolson
I am at a Bruges Group meeting in Westminster where Tory MPs Sir Christopher Chope and Suella Braverman are due to speak about tomorrow's indicative votes on Brexit. Margaret Thatcher is being beamed in through a projector.
Bruges Group chairman Barry Legg: "Last week we were in touching distance of a great prize. Freedom day. But last Friday our government executed a remarkable U-turn."

"Once this country had a prime minister. Her name was Margaret Thatcher."
Legg: "The whole establishment including the civil service, the CBI, the BBC, and the Financial Times are all predicting a national humiliation."
Read 25 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets

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