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Quick thread on why Labour MPs who are opposing softer Brexit options on the basis that they are "not the kind of Brexit my voters wanted" & similar args are misunderstanding sentiment in their seats (& more widely) in important ways 1/?
2/? Firstly, such Lab MPs very commonly think that a Leave majority in their seat overall reads across into a Leave majority among Labour. As I explain here, this is usually a mistake:
3/? Secondly, such MPs will often claim control of imm is a red line for their voters so they cannot accept any deal w/ freedom of movement. That involves two mistakes. Firstly, public sentiment on imm has moved in a sharply positive direction since 2016: medium.com/@robfordmancs/…
4/? (and, no, its not just because they expect Brexit to have solved the issue - positive shift occurs across the board: medium.com/@robfordmancs/…
5/? In addition, plurality of public are now willing to accept FoM in exchange for single market access - another area where we have seen major shifts since 2016: bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
6/? Finally, by backing a hard Brexit over a soft Brexit, Labour MPs like this ally themselves with demographically declining minority, and alienate most of the groups the party has been gaining ground with since 2010
7/? Favouring the declining voters of the past over the voters any Labour govt needs to win to secure a majority (explain how a Hard Brexit Lab wins in Scotland or Canterbury) is a foolish strategy, particularly as most Labour voters would accept a soft Brexit compromise.
8/? As such, much better IMO for Lab MPs even in Leave seats to accept the kinds of soft Brexit compromises - Customs Union, Common Market 2.0 that most of their voters (both the minority who backed Leave and the majority who backed Remain) can live with /ends
The mistake hard Brexit Lab Leave MPs risk making is mirror image of the mistake ERG Cons in soft Brexit or Remain seats are making - seeing those who shout loudest in their postbag/twitter feed/local surgeries as representative rather than the extreme minority they usually are
