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(MINI THREAD) Polls have closed for the Newport West by-election and I can now tweet about it and I want to start by saying I am excited.
If you're surprised by that I'm not sure why you're following me.
Only the third byelection of this parliament. And it's an important one.
If you're surprised by that I'm not sure why you're following me.
Only the third byelection of this parliament. And it's an important one.
For a start, as we've seen this week, in this parliament every single MP matters. If Labour win the candidate is a committed remainer and will be another reliable vote for a soft brexit/referendum.
But the optics will be vital too. Newport West is a pretty safe Labour seat which solidly voted for Leave (53.7%).
If Labour win and win well, with a candidate pledged to another referendum, the party will feel it isn't paying a price for its flirtation with a PV.
If Labour win and win well, with a candidate pledged to another referendum, the party will feel it isn't paying a price for its flirtation with a PV.
If Lab's vote is especially strong then it will vinidcate some of the polling evidence which has suggested that Wales (which voted for Leave) has actually swung to remain.
If, however, the Labour voted is severely dented, and/or UKIP perform unexpectedly well, then it will embolden the voices within the party from the north and midlands who argue Corbyn needs to run a mile from a PV.
If the Lib Dems eat into Labour's remainer vote, likewise that will embolden those advocating a PV. Perhaps the nightmare for the party is if both happens and it proves Corbyn's strategy of triangulation isn't working.
As for the Tories they'll be hoping to avoid collapse. When Paul Flynn died they were hoping for a decent result- Labour were polling well behind. Much has changed since then. If UKIP is resurgent it'll embolden the no dealers.
Other (strong possibility): turnout completely collapses in a plague on all your houses election (coupled with bad weather).
That could be the first glimmers if a wider disaffection with both parties over their respective handling of Brexit and the start of a profound change in our politics.
Sorry not so mini thread. Whatever happens, given the moment it has come, Newport West could be an unusually important part of the Brexit story.
