Thread by @lewis_goodall

The Brexit Secretary spoke of the “irresistible logic of the numbers of the House of Commons” which mandates a soft Brexit.

The question must be, with -5 days to go, why did it take them so long to figure that out?

Of course one of the underreported reasons for that is the pretty impressive job @labourwhips have done in keeping Labour together and delivering the votes when it mattered (and Lab leadership in crafting a position around which most Lab MPs could cohere)...

Govt long knew it would need some Lab votes to get the deal through. They did almost no work to deliver them, expecting them to appear miraculously and instantly because Lab MPs “hate Corbyn” and have leave constituencies (was told this by govt sources on several occasions).

It was never, ever going to happen. Lab MPs are v tribal, have their CLPs to think about and were never going to be seen to save a Tory govt and end their careers in so doing, especially for something they see as reckless Tory project.

And moreover they just don’t believe it’s in the interests of their constituents, especially with no guarantees about the future relationship, likely directed by an ERGer. From the start Downing St has shown a shocking ignorance of the psychology and motivations of Labour MPs.

The truth is- and Lab leadership deserves credit for this- May is having to go cap in hand to Corbyn because he has kept his troops in line and she has not. For all the talk of Lab being as divided than Tories over Brexit when it’s mattered they haven’t been.

Now Corbyn has real power comes the real test. As one MP tells me “discipline will breakdown if he’s seen as the handmaiden to a soft Brexit.” There are lots of MPs who voted for a customs union in IVs only doing so with proviso of there being a ref attached.

The question is whether enough PV Lab MPs have the numbers. The position of Keir Starmer who has done more than any other to nudge Corbyn in an increasingly soft Brexit direction will be crucial: “People are very nervous” one MP tells me, “today is as much about Keir as Corbyn.”

It’s a tough thing for Corbyn to calibrate. On the one hand he cannot be seen to have facilitated a Tory Brexit but nor can he be seen to absolutely obstructionist either. The Leader’s office is divided as to how to proceed.

It’s going to be one hell of a day.