Thread by @lewis_goodall

NEWPORT WEST BY ELECTION 2019 RESULT

PLAID: 1185
RENEW: 879
CONSERVATIVE: 7357
UKIP: 2023
LABOUR: 9308
LIB DEM: 1088
SDP: 202
FOR BRITAIN: 159
ABOLISH THE WELSH ASSEMBLY 205
GREEN: 924

WINNER: LABOUR
MAJ: 1951

Both Lab and Tory share down. Eaten up by UKIP, Plaid and LD.

Labour's vote share is down 13 points
Tory vote share actually more solid- down 8 points
UKIP vote share up 7 points, increased from 2.5% to 9%

The return of two party politics augered in 2017 is unravelling, slowly.

The Tories really didn't too badly there. Given absolute national turmoil and nine years in government, in a S Wales seat, it's a respectable performance.

For Labour there are bigger questions. It's a perfectly *ok* performance but mixed messages for its Brexit strategy.

For a start in normal circumstances we wouldn't expect an opposition party nine years in opposition to be losing vote share in a solid seat. They lost ground.

Not just in vote share but there was a 2.4% swing from Labour to the Conservatives.

Not good.

BUT in terms of clues as to how they should tackle Brexit- it's mixed messages for Labour.

On the one hand they probably lost some support to UKIP.

But the remain parties: LDs, Renew, Greens etc ate into Labour vote share. Some who want a PV and aren't happy with JC's approach

That's before the Tiggers get involved.

The weakness of the LDs (or a Remain force) has been key to glacial pace of Labour's conversion to PV. There hasn't been a Remain threat to Lab in urban seats and little pressure on leadership. That might start to change.

Also touches on something I've been banging on about for a while.

We talk about "Labour leave seats" as if all Lab voters in Leave seats are Leavers.

They're not. Newport West is a leave seat but as in all Labour Leave seats, Labour is more dependent on remainers than leavers.

So if Labour starts to lose significant numbers of remainers to PV backing parties, it affects them in EVERY seat, even deep in Brexitland.

So on balance this probably helps the pro-PV voices in Labour but it isn't all one way.

Question for pro-remain forces generally though: is there room in British politics for remain voters to be distributed across three, four or five parties?

UKIP performance hardly stellar but they are reviving. Questions as to whether Farage's Brexit party is viable.

Some will be surprised at their performance given their mutation into a very different and more extreme political force. I suspect most voters just haven't noticed.

SO BIG TAKEAWAYS

- I'm amazed at stickiness of the Tory vote, given, you know, chaos.
- Mixed, mixed messages for Corbyn's Labour.
- 2017 might have been high watermark of 2 party politics, voters fracturing again (combined Lab+Tory vote 70% in 2019, was 90%+ in 2017)

-on plus side for Labour, there's an extra vote in the opposition lobbies on every vote in the Commons from Monday. And right now, they all count.

It's just one by-election on a wet April day so we shouldn't overinterpret. Paul Flynn was a popular MP and had a personal vote. nonetheless warning signs for both main parties, esp. Labour.

Leave aside Brexit- losing vote share in the ninth year of opposition is bad.

Night!