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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The Warriors are unlikely to lose the series to the Clippers (!!), but the combined effect of their loss in Game 2 tonight and the DeMarcus Cousins injury makes the championship conversation a lot more open. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predi…
We don't know any more about the Cousins injury than anyone else, but as a placeholder based on Steve Kerr's comments, our model assumes he's out for a couple weeks and then has a chance to recover. We'll update as more news comes in.
It looks like our initial guess about Cousins was pretty decent, but maybe a pinch optimistic. We're now assuming he's out for sure for the next 3 weeks, but then has an outside chance to recover by the Finals.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, early presidential primary polls are fairly predictive. 53eig.ht/2PtbSd7
You have to adjust for name recognition, though. Biden, at just south of 30 percent, is still something like a 2:1 underdog. And Bernie's position at 20 percent, as I wrote yesterday, is tenable but not great.
Per the chart above, Buttigieg's position is roughly as good as Bernie's on a "polls only" basis, or maybe a bit better. Empirically, you'd slightly prefer to be polling at ~10% with low name recognition than ~20% with high name recognition.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I suppose it's not the same thing as voting rights *while* in prison, but seems noteworthy that a ballot initiative to restore voting rights to *ex*-felons passed 65-35 (!) in Florida last year, in an election where Democrats otherwise had pretty bad results in the state.
I guess I'm surprised that Democratic POTUS candidates aren't more willing to Overton-Window-shift on voting rights. Some of it probably polls better than you'd think with swing voters and (not breaking any news) expanding/protecting voting rights generally helps Ds electorally.
Bernie's response was pretty unequivocal on this so don't mean to lump all Democrats together. I don't get what, like, Harris is doing though. cnn.it/2XGnBI7
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Been dancing around this take because I *do* think Sanders can win (one of the more likely nominees IMO). But was time to write it because I think people are wimps and overcompensating for 2016:

#Actually, Bernie's polling isn't that good. 🔥🔥🔥

53eig.ht/2VhpcXB
Sanders is polling at ~20% nationally with ~100% name recognition. Slightly higher in NH but slightly worse in Iowa. Historically, candidates in a similar position don't have a great track record. (3 for 15 in winning nominations, or 20%).
Sanders's favorability/unfavorability ratings have varied a lot from poll to poll. But on average, they're in the upper-middle part of the pack, not at the top. Biden's negatives are lower and candidates like Buttigieg and Harris have better ratings adjusted for name recognition.
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Swiss Ramble
@SwissRamble
Birmingham City’s 2017/18 financial results covered a season when they finished 19th in the Championship, only avoiding relegation on the final day, and had three managers: big-spending Harry Redknapp, Steve Cotterill and Garry Monk. Some thoughts in the following thread #BCFC
#BCFC loss before tax more than doubled from £16.4m to a barely credible £37.4m, primarily due to massive investment in the squad: wages rose £16.1m (71%) from £22.5m to £38.6m, while player amortisation increased by £5.0m from £2.6m to £7.6m.
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🇺🇸#KAG2020WARS❌
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INCOMING:

#Warriors --> YOU ARE NEEDED...! Starting, NOW...!

Starting tonight, WE TWEET, WE CALL, WE EMAIL, WE THE PEOPLE...!

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EVERY STATE SENATOR...! We call...! EVERY FOUR HOURS:
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David Ricardo García
@davidricardogg
#Series ¡Me gustó la música de #Versailles! He terminado las dos primeras temporadas de esta ambiciosa serie de #ficciónhistórica disponible en @NetflixLAT, y ya espero la tercera y última temporada. En este hilo compartiré una apreciación personal del #Score y del #Soundtrack.
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San Francisco Chronicle
@sfchronicle
A dynasty secured: How five players led the #Warriors to a title defense that cemented their place in basketball history. trib.al/iwDiBa0
You can call him the Silent Assassin.

When big moments arise, Kevin Durant has proven he’s up for the challenge. And then some. trib.al/m0dAKs1
You can call him Mr. Chill.

Klay Thompson is the #Warriors' rock, their calm center. His temperament and personality make him a true NBA oddity. trib.al/qQVn9Vr
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To give you an idea how far west I am, the alphabetical avenues have started over at A again. It's possible no Minneapolis journalist has ever ventured this far west for a tweet.
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