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Some impressions from my week in Tehran and conversations with intellectuals and officials. Not everything as the issues and timing are delicate but a general view
Difficult to see any collapse in the regime. Discontent exists but opposition has no leadership, not even organized. Once again US foreign policy is based on errors of fact. Notion in State Department is that regime is in last throes
There are some changes, of course. When I was in Iran for a month three years ago I could not see a single woman without a headscarf. Now it happens in North Tehran. Likely that in three years it will be even more normal
Revolutionary Guards continue to lose economic power. This is an important change. But regime looks roughly united. No civil war between factions
There is no strategy. Only thing regime can think is that maybe Trump will lose reelection and that America will continue to lose allies. Idea that Trump is chipping away at American influence not taken very seriously in Tehran, everyone wants a Democrat to win
Iran interested in staying in the deal until atms embargo is lifted in two years. Europeans making an error of judgment when thinking Iran is on verge of leaving and needs concessions
Deal itself is popular in iranian public opinion but unpopular with elites. Many intellectuals agreed with me that deal made things worse and put us on a path to the current confrontation
On the whole impossible to avoid conclusion that both US and European policy towards Itan is based on a deep ignorance of realities on the ground. Isolation does not help. Policy being made by people who know little about the country, many have never been to Iran at all
China and Russia increasing their presence, but that’s for another discussion
