,
9 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
FYI for those counting on green shoots 🌱, Singapore just reported that non-oil domestic exports contracted double digits by -10% YoY & electronics by -16.3% after a large contraction of -26.7% in March.
Regional exports below 👇🏻 Very L-shapy still.
Regional exports below 👇🏻 Very L-shapy still.
Below are details by country & man is it ugly. Exports of Singapore declined everywhere, esp to the EU & Japan (yes, they are NIRPies).
Just so u know China just let the CNY fly to above 6.9 & now 6.941 & u know what that means.
It means that other Asian currencies are not gonna stay strong versus the CNY as it would erode export competitiveness etc.
Dollar is 👑today.
It means that other Asian currencies are not gonna stay strong versus the CNY as it would erode export competitiveness etc.
Dollar is 👑today.
Do you know why when CNY weakens, SHCOMP falls?
a) Onshore would interpret this that China not caving & preparing for worst case scenario so bearish;
b) Chinese listed firms are very domestic & only 10% of earnings are abroad so valuation impact minute;
c) Not everyone loses
a) Onshore would interpret this that China not caving & preparing for worst case scenario so bearish;
b) Chinese listed firms are very domestic & only 10% of earnings are abroad so valuation impact minute;
c) Not everyone loses
Who are the winners of trade-war escalation:
a) Chinese firms in sectors like semi-conductor rejoicing that they now have that large market to themselves - YIPPIE!
b) Non-Chinese firms excited that they don't have Chinese competition (5G anyone)
c) Risk-free assets excited too!
a) Chinese firms in sectors like semi-conductor rejoicing that they now have that large market to themselves - YIPPIE!
b) Non-Chinese firms excited that they don't have Chinese competition (5G anyone)
c) Risk-free assets excited too!
Just so u know, that CNY fix reflects this:
China is NOT interested in talking with US for now (state media, as reported by Bloomberg) 😮
Headline is funny cuz it sounds like the US & China were dating & now they are fighting & defo not talking, for now (meaning may talk later)
China is NOT interested in talking with US for now (state media, as reported by Bloomberg) 😮
Headline is funny cuz it sounds like the US & China were dating & now they are fighting & defo not talking, for now (meaning may talk later)
Following the "China not interested in talking w/ the US" & CNY fix, help is coming so do not panic 👌🏻:
Will increase stimulus measures in proportion to the impact of higher tariffs from the US to keep the economy in a "reasonable range"
Will increase stimulus measures in proportion to the impact of higher tariffs from the US to keep the economy in a "reasonable range"
Okay, time to reflect on other news. This morning, the US LOWERED tariffs on Turkey steel imports to 25% (TRY liked it);
Also, decided to not raise tariffs w/ Japan during talks.
Meaning, US trying to appease allies.
Also, decided to not raise tariffs w/ Japan during talks.
Meaning, US trying to appease allies.
Guys, u know that we are only 0.86% (so less than 1%) from 7 for USD/CNH?
