Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning 🌞 - let's follow the $$$. Foreign holders of @USTreasury rose in March by 88.2bn to USD6,473.3:

Sellers: China 🇨🇳 sold 10.4bn, France, Canada,, Norway, Thailand, Kuwait, Australia, Israel

Buyers: EVERYONE ELSE 🤗

Wut did they buy? T-bonds 👌🏻

@USTreasury Reading this @thomsonreuters story about how China is selling UST & it says China sold 20.45bn & I did the math of 1130.9-1120.5 = NOT 20.45 & wonder where they got this from.

They say foreigners are SELLING but they are BUYING MASSIVELY based on data 6473.3-6373.3 = + 88.2🤔

@USTreasury @thomsonreuters I almost Tweeted the Reuters story b/c that is wut I read when I wake up every morning & then I decided to NOT b/c wanted to use primary data rather than secondary & realized they DECIDED TO INTERPRET it to make it like a MASSIVE SELL-OFF. But foreigners BOUGHT MORE @USTreasury

@USTreasury @thomsonreuters News headlines on this data👇🏻 (released last night). A key example why you should read PRIMARY DATA, esp if it's 1 google away, rather than SECONDARY SOURCES.

All super sensationalize to relate to trade-war (nuclear options & wut not). Foreigners BOUGHT A LOT of @USTreasury

@USTreasury @thomsonreuters The headline says China dumps @USTreasury but sold 10.4bn in March (they buy & sell all the time). It's allowed to do that & that's why u buy UST b/c it's liquid & the US doesn't have capital controls.

U know wut I mean? U can give it an angle but China is free to sell & buy.

@USTreasury @thomsonreuters Don't understand the fuss - people buy & sell (called markets). China invests in @USTreasury for OWN DOMESTIC PURPOSE. It'd rather have liquid assets that yield meh (although not so meh if u consider the NIRP countries), but have flexibility to SELL & BUY. China selling not news

@USTreasury @thomsonreuters Just read @USTreasury website on the differences b/n 2 data bases so here's some info on 2 data sets:

a) Net purchases only have net transactions;
b) Total CHANGE calculated on STOCK reflects CHANGES IN HOLDINGS of Treasury Bills & Certificates.

Link 👇🏻
treasury.gov/resource-cente…

@USTreasury @thomsonreuters Have read the methodology on this dataset & basically the pt here is that COUNTRY ATTRIBUTION is not perfect (transactions on behalf of China can be out of Belgium, UK, Lux, Swiss, etc) & so u have to read it w/ a grain of salt. It gives u a sense of trends & so not literal 👇🏻

@USTreasury @thomsonreuters Finally, this is March data & we're mid May so let's look at what the UST curve has done since then 👇🏻👇🏻:

The Nike sign has moved downward since end of March & that means people have been BUYING more UST (markets pricing in lower growth in the future & Fed cuts). 10-yr 2.357%