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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Good morning🦋, let's recap overnight actions:

US housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, Phili Fed & Walmart & Cisco earnings all pointing to decent US growth.

So equities rallied despite ESCALATED TENSIONS (yes, Huawei ban & Global Times op-ed).

DXY rallied
The DXY obvs doesn't encapsulate all USD movements as EUR (58%) JPY 14% GBP 12 %CAD 9%.

👇🏻DXY rallied 9.5% since last yr & that is very bad news for the global econ, esp EM b/c it tightens trade financing & actually doesn't do that J-curve thing u learned in macro101. True story
DXY doesn't have AUD or CNH but let's look at them:

Since 1yr ago, China & Australia data have deteriorated (mini cycles in b/n but trend is 📉).

How does that show up in FX markets? Well, 📉lower growth ➡️needing help (mono & fiscal) & so ➡️exps of 📉rates to help ➡️📉FX

👇🏻
Aussie dollar lost 8.3%vsUSD in1yr & so the CNH (yep, no coincidence here). Meaning, they both have lost value vs USD, which means they are FLAT against each other. Interesting right?

NAB just pushed RBA ✂️calls forward to June & August. Why? B/c of weak domestic & also China.
As someone whose income is in HKD, I'm feeling this trend of HKD rising versus AUD (+54% since 2011) 🇭🇰💪🏻👌🏻. There is a direct flight from Sydney to LAX 🤗
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More from @Trinhnomics see all

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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
FYI for those counting on green shoots 🌱, Singapore just reported that non-oil domestic exports contracted double digits by -10% YoY & electronics by -16.3% after a large contraction of -26.7% in March.

Regional exports below 👇🏻 Very L-shapy still.
Below are details by country & man is it ugly. Exports of Singapore declined everywhere, esp to the EU & Japan (yes, they are NIRPies).
Just so u know China just let the CNY fly to above 6.9 & now 6.941 & u know what that means.

It means that other Asian currencies are not gonna stay strong versus the CNY as it would erode export competitiveness etc.

Dollar is 👑today.
Read 9 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
Good morning 🌞 - let's follow the $$$. Foreign holders of @USTreasury rose in March by 88.2bn to USD6,473.3:

Sellers: China 🇨🇳 sold 10.4bn, France, Canada,, Norway, Thailand, Kuwait, Australia, Israel

Buyers: EVERYONE ELSE 🤗

Wut did they buy? T-bonds 👌🏻
@USTreasury Reading this @thomsonreuters story about how China is selling UST & it says China sold 20.45bn & I did the math of 1130.9-1120.5 = NOT 20.45 & wonder where they got this from.

They say foreigners are SELLING but they are BUYING MASSIVELY based on data 6473.3-6373.3 = + 88.2🤔
@USTreasury @thomsonreuters I almost Tweeted the Reuters story b/c that is wut I read when I wake up every morning & then I decided to NOT b/c wanted to use primary data rather than secondary & realized they DECIDED TO INTERPRET it to make it like a MASSIVE SELL-OFF. But foreigners BOUGHT MORE @USTreasury
Read 9 tweets
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Trinh
@Trinhnomics
After keeping quiet on "trade-war", China is upping the rhetoric w/ Xi speech this morning & now China foreign ministry. The tone from the Chinese side is MORALISTIC (as in I'm the victim here & a good guy) while the US is DIRECT.

Thread 👇🏻is on CULTURAL differences. Enjoy!
American vs. Chinese negotiation:

1) American is direct (all cards on table - Trump wanting concessions on investment & trade) v. Chinese moderate & moralistic (protectionism bad etc/US the bully)

2) Both escalate/louder but Americans spell out what they want but China less so
Link to thread here 👇🏻. Consider: a) 🇨🇳China moralistic tone is its style & defo cares about this for cultural reasons & totally wants behind the scene vs transparency; b) Americans put all the cards on the table & like clarity & don't mind tension/fight🇺🇸
Read 10 tweets

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Tosin Olugbenga
@TosinOlugbenga
Good morning,

Beautiful day is here.

Quickly let me explain how I understand the saga between @badt_BOI_ & @DolaposS and how the intentions of @badt_BOI are pure and how lack of business understanding affected Dolapo.

It's no fault of any of them.
On this Dolapo saga.

I see most tweets from people as very uninformed opinions driven mostly by emotions .

The bones of contention are
1. Why use your personal details as business address during registration.

2. Why take the whole of 20%

3. Why are you a signatory
Business Address, of what significance is it during registration process. According to CAMA of CAC, within the law, address of any business is insignificant as people can change address anytime. Look at attached image, two things are important

Name
Passport
Signature of OWNER
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Good morning 😀 Another interesting week in the market. Last week, I expected SP500 to set up a relief rally. It did - but what is the outlook ahead? And the Euro....everybody was so bearish the Euro this week. What happens next? Ready for some #HZupdates?
#SP500 the big picture, I think we have the beginning of a major Bear market. We have 5 waves up since 2009 - and this is a major 5(red) top. Hence, the correction is on the entire structure. Will unfold in 3 waves (ABC). Three possible target areas. #HZupdates
#SP500 Wave A of major Bear will unfold in 5 waves. We may have seen wave 1(red) of that decline, and are currently in making of wave 2(red). This may take some weeks to unfold. If this is right, then one of the crashes, we will experience during this bear, waits ahead #HZupdates
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
Good morning from #Copenhagen, #Denmark 😀Another exciting week in the market. Hope you are up for some #HZupdates. We are imo getting closer to an inflection point where things will start to develop fast. Stay tuned! 👍
😀 I would like to see how many #FinTwit users read my #HZupdates on a weekly basis. Will you please answer by a simply "yes" or "no" to the question: I read #HZupdates every weekend. Thanks! 👍
#SP500 I think we pot. have a full count for US #equities. I see a test of the lower trendline (yellow mark) as a given. How successful that test turns out will give us a lot of info. #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets
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Guilaine Kinouani
@KGuilaine
Good morning. I’ve been thinking. Partly in relation to the short thread I wrote abt opinions & lived experience & really this issue is an issue that keeps cropping up in different way. And came to the conclusion that the term lived experience has somehow lost meaning.
Or rather that folks do not understand what it is intended to mean and usually confuse it with the more general term experience or other opinions. Perhaps feminist & radical scholars are partly responsible...
For taking its meaning for granted and not always spelling it out, diluting & perhaps contributing to its loss? I am not sure. But I think there is value in restating what we mean when we speak of lived experience.
Read 25 tweets
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molly 🐶
@socialistdogmom
good morning! instead of heading out for the first day of what would’ve been a long & painful trial, i’m on my way to what i hope will be a fairly brief sentencing hearing.
richard preston was found guilty yesterday after pleading no contest to firing his gun on ACsmy
based on the witnesses he put on the stand at the preliminary hearing in december, preston’s lawyer elmer woodard would have pursued a self defense/defense of others argument. preston must have seen how badly that went for another of elmer’s clients last week...
the jury was visibly disgusted by elmer’s insistence that jacob goodwin was “defending himself” from deandre harris.
Read 20 tweets

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