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In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ PVV has long commanded an important share of the vote. Now, a new far-right populist movement, Thierry Baudet’s Forum for Freedom, is overtaking it.
Baudet will likely come in second. Together, he and Wilders will have 20%-25% of the vote.
9/n
Baudet will likely come in second. Together, he and Wilders will have 20%-25% of the vote.
9/n
In Austria, the far-right FPÖ may only come in third.
But together with the formerly center-right ÖVP, which has since thoroughly "populistified," and failed to stand up to the FPÖ in coalition, the current government will probably get over 50%.
But together with the formerly center-right ÖVP, which has since thoroughly "populistified," and failed to stand up to the FPÖ in coalition, the current government will probably get over 50%.
And of course will perform strongly in plenty of other countries, too.
From Spain, Vox will enter the parliament for first time. In Germany, the AfD will increase its share of the vote. In many smaller Central European countries, populists will dominate.
11/n
From Spain, Vox will enter the parliament for first time. In Germany, the AfD will increase its share of the vote. In many smaller Central European countries, populists will dominate.
11/n
“OK, OK,” I hear you say. “All of that is depressing and scary, bla yadda, etc. But what does it mean?”
There are two implications the election will have:
1) It will make it more difficult to run the European Parliament.
2) It shows what’s ahead at the national level.
12/n
There are two implications the election will have:
1) It will make it more difficult to run the European Parliament.
2) It shows what’s ahead at the national level.
12/n
It takes a majority in the European Parliament--about 376 seats--to pass the EU’s budget, to confirm a President of the European Commission, and to elect a President of the European Parliament.
13/n
13/n
The broadest realistic coalition for some of these tasks includes deputies drawn from:
•Center-right EPP (e.g. Merkel)
•Liberal ALDE (e.g. Macron)
•Center-left Social Democrats (e.g. Sanchez)
•Moderate Greens (e.g. Cohn-Bendit)
14/n
•Center-right EPP (e.g. Merkel)
•Liberal ALDE (e.g. Macron)
•Center-left Social Democrats (e.g. Sanchez)
•Moderate Greens (e.g. Cohn-Bendit)
14/n
According to projections, these parties will together get somewhere between 450-500 seats.
That's a majority. But you need to remember that it contains multitudes – both ideologically, from EPP to Greens, and geographically, from Greece to Finland.
15/n
That's a majority. But you need to remember that it contains multitudes – both ideologically, from EPP to Greens, and geographically, from Greece to Finland.
15/n
As a result, the new European Parliament may just be able to keep the show on the road in a hugely chaotic fashion.
But there’s no realistic chance of reforming European institutions or fashioning coherent policy.
16/n
But there’s no realistic chance of reforming European institutions or fashioning coherent policy.
16/n
Finally, this also shows that the rise of populist parties continues at the national level, which ultimately remains most important.
Across Europe, populists are now one of the most powerful blocs. Upcoming national elections, e.g. in Poland, may decide democracy's fate.
17/17
Across Europe, populists are now one of the most powerful blocs. Upcoming national elections, e.g. in Poland, may decide democracy's fate.
17/17
