Thread by @Yascha_Mounk

My top takeaways from the European elections:

1) The far-right populist wave continues.
2) The left is greening.
3) A big debate about social democratic strategy is brewing
4) Far-left is imploding.

[Thread.]

1)

Far-right populists are now established as a major force in virtually all European countries.

They came top in France, Italy, U.K., Poland and Hungary, and performed strongly in many other places.

Like so often in the past years, there’s a good bit of chatter about the populist wave cresting.

But as before, this is based on a weird baseline. (If they’re not winning everywhere, they must be losing!)

The long-term trend is, sadly, clear.

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1132743965353099264

It's also worth noting that the strength of the populists is somewhat obscured by their fragmentation.

Unless you count Orban’s Fidesz as part of the center-right, the three far-right populist factions in the European Parliament will have more MEPs than the long-dominant EPP.

2)

Green parties have done well in Germany, France and Portugal. Liberals in the U.K., NL, etc. Both tend to do well among the young.

Is this the most significant story of the night--a positive counter-reaction to the populist rise?

Not quite.

In virtually all countries, Greens have won at the expense of other left-wing parties.

Take the cumulative vote share for Greens & SPD in Germany:

2014: 38%
2019: 36%

So what’s going on here is not a resurgence of the left.

Rather, it is a shift of the main political cleavage: For most of the postwar period, economics was the crucial dividing line. Today, it is culture.

When most voters focus on the economy, social democrats dominate the left-leaning electorate.

When most voters focus on culture, Greens (or, in some places, Liberals) can start to rival them.

In other words, the rise of the Greens is not a counter-narrative to the populist rise. Rather, it is the other side of the same coin:

As culture comes to the forefront of politics, far-right populists grow on the right, and cosmopolitan parties like Greens grow on the left.

3)

Social Democrats have long faced a double challenge:

• The working-class defects to far-right populists like the Lega, the AfD, or the Brexit Party.
• Younger, more urban voters defect to Green (etc) Parties.

This has continued today, with record losses in many countries.

How can social democrats stench the flow?

There are basically two strategies. The first only works in countries that have a majoritarian-ish voting system in national elections: Build a broad tent that appeals to both the cultural and economic left.

Examples: Spain + Portugal.

The other strategy is also available in countries with proportional representation:

Concede young, urban voters to Green Parties. Fight hard to keep or regain working-class voters by adopting culturally conservative policies—like a harder stance on immigration.

Example: Denmark

It now looks likely that Mette Frederiksen will become Danish Prime Minister next week by running a more culturally conservative, immigrant-skeptic social democratic campaign.

Expect a big strategic debate to ensue among other social democratic parties across Europe.

4)

One widely overlooked story from the European elections is the very poor showing of far-left parties.

Corbyn’s Labour? Came third!
Podemos in Spain? Down to 10%!
Syriza in Greece? Eclipsed by the center-right!
Melenchon in France? In the single digits!

The collapse of the far-left has been particularly marked in its strongholds: among young voters and in urban areas.

Examples:

* In Greece, Syriza lost among young voters.
* Labour lost hold of Islington!

The enthusiasm for Corbyn, Tsipras, etc. proved to be very short-lived.

What's it all mean?

Europe’s politics are transforming in interesting ways. Populists are not the only part of that story.

And yet, the populist threat to democracy in Poland, Hungary, Italy, France and other parts of Europe, remains the most important headline.

[End.]