Profile picture
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Tip for people commenting on the local election results. More than one thing can happen at the same time. Both parties are paying the price for an ambiguous brexit position, as leavers and remainers vote UKIP, Lib Dem (or stay at home).

This means...
Tories should vote for the Brexit deal. The few who think of it as “not proper Brexit” will be dismissed as fools, cranks, gadflies, swivel-eyed loons, and the party can get on with attacking Labour as anti-Semitic communists. /
Labour should support a second referendum. A loss of leave votes will be outweighed by a gain in Remain ones. /
Whichever party does one of these first will dominate the political scene, because they’ll be able to say vaguely sensible things about the issues facing the country.

Not that i´m holding my breath...
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Garvan Walshe
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @garvanwalshe see all

Profile picture
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
Early days, but if this differential turnout picture is sustained it could be a very close battle between LDs and BXP for first place. Electorate looking between 55% and 60% REMAIN

(Rough estimates 2015 GE - 51% REMAIN. 2017 GE - 54% REMAIN; 2016 REF 52%LEAVE)
Turnout in labour leave areas looking very low, so overall LAB vote shares probably will be too.
Britain’s a country divided in two within the margin of differential turnout. It’s taking huge decisions based on who turns up on the day...
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
If you want to understand politics read, learn and write history. It’s a far better guide to politics than political science. 1/
2/ History teaches about power, and the people who use it. It uncovers the importance of luck, contingency and the individual will of people who hold it.
3/ It doesn’t offer rules and laws, because there aren’t any. At best there are tendencies and if we’re lucky guidelines.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Garvan Walshe
@garvanwalshe
Britain never really bought into the idea, but acquiesced in it for economic reasons, and even then only stayed with all kinds of special exceptions. It did so because 1/
Opponents of Britain’s membership ran an energetic campaign against it. Some of their arguments were honourable (different history, different perspective on world etc.) but others rested on myths and self-deception 2/
The biggest myth was that they were only joining a “common market” and political union was subsequently foisted upon an unwilling British public.

In fact the debate in the 60s and 70s involved plenty of discussion of its role bringing peace to Europe 3/
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Three Women 🎗
@ThreeWomen_
Dear @ZacGoldsmith
As a "contemptuous Remainer", may I assure you that I have considered the implications of "winning", as you put it, very carefully.
First, Remainers long ago gave up the idea of #Brexit being a winner/loser situation. They are all too fully aware that leaving/2
2/ will be nothing but lose/lose all round. Oh, except maybe for those who are trying to avoid the new tax legislation.
Second, the 48% who voted #Remain, and the @the3million and @BritishInEurope who were disenfranchised in the 2016 referendum /3
3/know only too well what it's like to have their vote ignored and their postal votes "lost" or maybe never counted. The BBC & other *impartial* media outlets name them persistently as #Remoaners, if mentioned at all. The PM referred to them as "losers" in the Withdrawal Bill. /4
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Robert Saunders
@redhistorian
Like an iceberg slowly melting, the break-up of the "big two" parties has been building for decades. But history doesn't move in straight lines, and if this is the start of a new alignment in British politics - a big "if" - it's happening in a way few saw coming. [THREAD]
2.The modern two-party system peaked in the 1950s, when nearly 97% of the electorate voted Conservative or Labour. The two parties were broad coalitions with mass memberships & deep roots in trade unions, the churches & middle-class sociability. It's been in free-fall ever since.
3. From 1951 to 2010, the percentage of voters backing Labour or the Conservatives fell from 97% to 65% - a drop of nearly a third. If we count the growing numbers who stayed at home, the proportion voting for one of the big two nearly halved over that period: from 80% to 42%.
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Corbyn, FoM and the reason #Brexit lives - a rant
Apologies but I'm really pretty peeved at the moment, especially after Twitter events in the last few days

This comment appeared in a scoop on Len McCluskey, and it helps explain what's really happening in Labour on #Brexit
2) In this, a senior Labour figure, Len McCluskey, talks about "legitimate concerns" on immigration and "exploitation" of those people, then goes on to give examples of wage impacts
Yes, he wants to end exploitation by taking away the agency of the exploited
3) the logic goes "immigrants are being exploited, so lets deal with that not by tackling the exploiters, but by locking the victims in their own country"

This is a professed socialist speaking

It's also part of the reason why Brexit is still alive - Corbyn wants to end FoM
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Thread - Corbyn, #Brexit & Labour democracy - let's just be honest, it's dead

Saddened but not surprised by this reversal by Labour Leadership.

Labour members overwhelmingly support a People's vote, and they have been comprehensively overridden

#LabourConference2018
2) so, full disclosure, I'm not a Corbyn fan but I was absolutely prepared to "lay down arms" if something approaching a pro people's vote motion came out of last night's horsetrading. It didn't. A fudge came out, and that fudge was hardened into a pro brexit position
3) so what happened, and what does it mean? Quick summary
Well, clearly there is a growing pro remain/people's vote position in Labour - 9 out of 10 members support it & 150 CLPs sent in pro vote motions.

That's a staggering number and shows the concern of members
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

Trending hashtags

#PeoplesVote #Brexit #RHI #remainers #brexit #BBCQT #RevokeArticle50 #NoDealBrexit #Remain #hospitals #JoCox #leavers #Mansfield #RescueOurRights #DestroyTheAadhaar #LabourConference2018 #projectfear #CymruCapitulates #citizensrights #FBPE #BrexitregionalImpact #remain #EPP #ABTV #EUelections2019
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!