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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Some chatter over the last few days about how the EU would respond to a UK request for a 5 or 10-year limited backstop, as possibly suggested by Jeremy Hunt in the leadership contest - not sure at this point they'd be sympathetic, but... telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
I'm actually going for the humblebrag here, in that I suggested the UK could ask for such a long time limit on a backstop back in January, along with other improvements to the Withdrawal Agreement such as a Joint Report on Ireland (originally in Telegraph) linkedin.com/pulse/brexit-d…
So far the leadership candidates have stuck to familiar and failed ground on Brexit negotiations (threaten no-deal, alternative arrangements) - they have to try something different and even then the Commission may not wish to make any changes linkedin.com/pulse/brexit-t…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Given how much we're going to be talking Free Trade Agreements this week - whether UK-EU or UK-US - it is important to realise that the modern FTA is more about the locking in rules of trade rather than actual trade liberalisation 1/n
The simple average tariff of the EU (and UK) is currently 5%. 3.4% for the US. They're higher for agriculture (around 11% for the EU, 5% for the US). Just getting rid of these won't be an economic game-changer - and often they're protecting politically sensitive sectors 2/
Services? "However, in the main, services trade agreements do not lead to actual trade liberalisation" quoted from this @uk_tpo paper and many others - because services trade is really all about regulations blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publicat… 3/
Read 14 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There's some coherence to this, but the major problems of Brexit remain - what is the purpose of independent trade policy, and realistically how long will any Ireland border solution take (bearing in mind the unprecedented nature)
It is the first question - on why an independent trade policy - that is rarely answered. If the answer is services and artificial intelligence why not a Customs Union with EU for goods. We're likely in any event to be rule takers for goods because of EU market power.
And if you're wanting UK trade deals what can you offer beyond greater agricultural market access or more visas - which will be politically unpopular? And what you can offer will determine what you can gain - which therefore may not be that much.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
With respect to the office of the US President, but not the incumbent, this is the kind of advice you'd expect from a man who has started trade wars, undermined international institutions, and threatened most of his allies at various times
The world's advice for dealing with Trump is incidentally something the current PM has practiced a lot in three years, keep kicking the can, talk but try to avoid deals or impetuous unilateral action from the President. Deeply untrustworthy man.
Sadly it appears that the Sunday Times did not ask the President what the UK would gain from a trade deal, but it is a question that needs to be asked - for it is likely to have a negative impact on the UK economy because of the extra barriers to other trade
Read 3 tweets

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