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François Chollet
@fchollet
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
"Critique of pure reason" isn't just a book by Immanuel Kant, it's also a 1987 essay on AI by Drew McDermott. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
From Shirky (2003): "[they] greatly overestimate the value of deductive reasoning (a persistent theme in Artificial Intelligence projects generally.) The great popularizer of this error was Arthur Conan Doyle, whose Sherlock Holmes stories..."
"...have done more damage to people's understanding of human intelligence than anyone other than Rene Descartes. Doyle has convinced generations of readers that what seriously smart people do when they think is to arrive at inevitable conclusions by linking antecedent facts."
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François Chollet
@fchollet
In late 2014, I said Go would be solved within the next 5 years (with the expectation that DL would play a role). AlphaGo certainly happened unexpectedly early, but not 20 years early. A few years early.
In the other direction, through 2015-2017 I was correctly tweeting that L5 self-driving was *not* around the corner. In 2018 I made a bet predicting robotaxis with no safety drivers would not be deployed commercially to the general public before 2023
If you know what *abilities* (potential) current AI techniques possess and what abilities are required for a given task, you can roughly time short-term applications

What you can't do is make 10+ year predictions, because what new abilities will be available is v hard to predict
Read 3 tweets
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François Chollet
@fchollet
A fundamental trend in AI is that researchers conceptualize the human mind (and intelligence in general) by using as mental models the current technological tools they have available. This is implicit and insidious.
1950-1990: the dominant implicit metaphor for the mind was a computer, with formal programs and explicit knowledge bases.

2010s: the dominant implicit metaphor for the mind is now that of a freshly initialized neural network deriving knowledge and skills from "training data"
(both are hopelessly wrong, and it is disheartening to see the blank slate NN analogy be just as uncritically accepted by the average student today as the computer metaphor was a few decades ago)
Read 3 tweets
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François Chollet
@fchollet
"why we are doing the research, why our tasks are particularly illustrative, why our methods are a step forward, whether performance is likely to increase or has reached a limit, is more important than performance measures because it tells us how research should proceed"
Paraphrased from Cohen and Howe 1988
Beating the state of the art is often a distraction from more important questions.
Read 3 tweets

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Timon Cline
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Per the thread last night on @joecarter 's article, for the sake of centralization/ease of access, this thread will compile the references to "cultural Marxism" from Marxist or Critical Theorists (or credible historians) in academic sources
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for those who did not follow the thread last night, the question is whether CM as a term has any credibility/circulation in academic sources contra Joe's claim that the term was conjured up first by William Lind & then co-opted by alt-right conspiracy theorists/kinists, etc.
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Alex Richter-Boix
@BoixRichter
¿Es el resultado de la evolución predecible? ¿Determinista? Es una de las grandes preguntas de la biología, sobre todo si nos miramos al ombligo: ¿fue la evolución de los humanos algo inevitable o estamos aquí por casualidad?
Voy hilando posibles respuestas👇
Los evolucionistas llevan lidiando con esta cuestión bastante tiempo, es famosa la opinión del paleontólogo Stephen Jay Gould: “si rebobinamos la cinta de la vida y volviéramos a dar al play obtendríamos resultados muy diferentes”
Rebobina miles de veces la cinta (una metáfora que los que han crecido con CD o MP3 quizá no entiendan, pero uno que ya es viejuno sí) y este simio tan peculiar con un cerebro sobredimensionado, es decir nosotros y nuestra tecnología, puede que no aparezca nunca.
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Alexis Henshaw
@Prof_Henshaw
This #WomensHistoryMonth, I'm going to try and highlight cases of women's active involvement in post-Cold War conflicts. The cases I'm discussing are among those featured in my newly released book Insurgent Women, and my prior book Why Women Rebel (now in paperback).
1a. Starting with the civil conflict in Colombia, which is featured in Insurgent Women. Many people are aware of the extensive participation of women in the FARC, where they were about 1/3 of the demobilizing rebels as of 2017. bbc.com/mundo/noticias…
1b. However, women's engagement in the war is much more complicated. The ELN, with ~2500 rebels per some estimates, has about 25% women in its ranks. Its highest-ranking ♀︎ leader, Comandante Paula, died in 2018 in Havana...
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Elliot Tapper
@ebtapper
How do we provide a prognosis of #cirrhosis?
A #livertwitter #tweetorial

Let's go deep to the very first prognostic tools
& see how everything old is new again.

Keywords: Child class, MELD, Frailty
First, a question:
What is the expected transplant-free survival for a person with a recent diagnosis of #cirrhosis?
Act 1: Necessity is the mother of invention

Imagine you are a patient w/a variceal bleed in 1940’s (Fig1)
No EGDs
No Banding/sclerotherapy
No hope!

And then came portosystemic shunt surgery(Fig2, I 👀U, A. Oldfather Whipple!)
Problem: Surgery⬇️rebleed but often⬇️survival (Fig3)
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Elliot Tapper
@ebtapper
Introducing the “The Hepatologist’s CBC”

A #cirrhosis #tweetorial all about the platelet

Aims:
- Identify cirrhosis based on blood tests-
- Understand why platelets are low in #cirrhosis
- Describe the plt’s role in the #cirrhotic #coagulopathy

#livertwitter
The hepatologist's dream:
identify patients with cirrhosis before complications like HCC and variceal bleeding.

Enter the platelet count
Shout out to JAMA's Rational Clin Exam Series & Udell et al's big beautiful systematic review ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22357834
Platelets are low in #cirrhosis.
We can use this to our advantage - even sparing biopsies.

Easy to do. E.g. Google: FIB-4
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There are many platelet-based scores to help ID cirrhosis.
(review: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2883446
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