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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
New Tory leader takes over on Monday, the 22nd of July.

When this happened with Gordon Brown, and John Major before him, they were taking over government with a ready majority.
This time there's no majority to take over.
The first thing the new Tory leader is going to have to do is get the support of the DUP.
If they can't secure DUP support, then they can't win a vote of confidence, and we're straight into a general election.

A general election in August?
And this is where the fuck up is going to come from. DUP support is no means guaranteed, and it will depend on a guarantee of no border in the Irish Sea.
Either promise them that or fight a general election because you won't get their support.
Monday July 22nd. new Tory leader

Tuesday July 23rd, vote of no confidence

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
The only chance of a new Tory leader surviving a vote of confidence is with DUP support.

If they don't secure that, it's a general election. But even if they do, they're only going to win by maybe one vote.
But if they do survive the immediate confidence vote, it will only be by abandoning Theresa May's deal to get the nutters on side.

So. New Tory leader publicly abandons Theresa May's plod, and asks Europe to renegotiate. Europe says no.
Parliament breaks for the summer with Brexit unresolved. No withdrawal agreement, and no renegotiation. What do they do?

Got to do a Queen's speech in the autumn, but half their own party is now ready to mutiny whatever they try.
Read 9 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
So even if the Tory leader survives a vote of confidence to at least get into the summer, they still have to pass a Queen's speech this autumn. Which they can't.
Yes. We're right. The Tories are going to have to offer another referendum. It's their only chance to stop Corbyn getting in.
General election October 17th. Tories offer another referendum that takes till next spring.

Four fucking years.
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
The new Tory leader is going to face a vote of no confidence anyway, which they must know they are likely to lose.
The only way they could win it is by promising the impossible
You could promise no border in the Irish Sea. You win the DUP, but then you can't Brexit, so you'd lose as many Tory votes as you gained with the DUP.
No confidence, general election.

Okay, what else?
You could promise to put a border in Ireland. Break the Good Friday Agreement. America would go mental, you would get no trade with them or with Europe. Crisis, what crisis?
No confidence, general election.

What else?
Read 7 tweets

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@gelliottmorris
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