Thread by @Staedtler

The only chance of a new Tory leader surviving a vote of confidence is with DUP support.

If they don't secure that, it's a general election. But even if they do, they're only going to win by maybe one vote.

But if they do survive the immediate confidence vote, it will only be by abandoning Theresa May's deal to get the nutters on side.

So. New Tory leader publicly abandons Theresa May's plod, and asks Europe to renegotiate. Europe says no.

Parliament breaks for the summer with Brexit unresolved. No withdrawal agreement, and no renegotiation. What do they do?

Got to do a Queen's speech in the autumn, but half their own party is now ready to mutiny whatever they try.

New Tory leader secures DUP support by promising to abandon May's deal.

New leader wins a vote of confidence, immediate panic over.

They know they can't pass a Queen's speech so they won't even try. Straight into a general election after summer.

The new Tory leader brings a Queen's speech in the autumn, including a second referendum, challenging the Lib Dems and Labour remainers to defy it.

Queen's speech passes.

The new Tory leader has a year before they can be challenged within their own party, and Labour remainers will protect them from a vote of no confidence because they want Brexit solved before letting Corbyn another election.

You've got a weird alliance now of the Tory front bench and the Labour back bench, just to get the legislation through for another referendum.
The Brexiteers will be furious, and no one will care. There's a working cross-party majority for a referendum, so that's what we get.

The government will probably do other things along the way and start acting like normal.
But there will be a cross-party majority to prevent a vote of no confidence.
Tough. The new Tory leader is safe for at least a year.

A referendum next spring. And then the informal coalition collapses, and we get a general election on normal terms, and nobody mentions Brexit ever again.