Thread by @GraziosiSergio

What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n

To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n

1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n

Similarly, when @UKLabour whipped the vote for #Art50 & endorsed the aim of stopping #FOM, they closed off a huge range of future options.
What is happening right now is the direct consequence of these decisions, to the point of making #Corbyn's current wishes irrelevant.
4/n

Had #Labour taken the stance that #FOM and #EU had nothing to do with the sense of powerlessness/neglect that fuels much of #Leave sentiment, explained why, & promoted such message consistently for 2-3 years, right now they would be able to say "#StopBrexit" AND gain from it.
5/n

But they can't. By voting for #Art50 & dissing #FOM they have made it impossible to credibly change policy. The ppl who needed convincing would now (rightly) see it as a betrayal: they cannot be reached/convinced by the current #Labour leadership *because* of their history.
6/n

Moreover, the current #Labour leadership, maybe with the exception of @Keir_Starmer, has been Self-Selected among those who can/could endorse the #Lexit rethoric promoted by #Corbyn and co.
Today, Corbyn is *also* unable to convince his own team of the need of changing tune.
7/n

In other words, he has trapped himself, *exactly* in the same way Cameron did before.
I never cease to marvel about the incapacity of (apparently) all/most frontline politicians to appreciate the power of such self-constraint. I call it "being caught in your own web of lies".
8/n

Yes: Lies.
Because if you ground your policies on reality, and explain such grounding, when the situation changes, *you can* change policy without looking like an unelectable fool.
But when you have to also defend *previous lies*, THEN your options get seriously constrained.
9/n

We reach the 2nd mechanism, also very important.
How much your past lies constrain your future options is a function of your own image and rhetoric.
If your biggest assets are your perceived honesty and straight-talking, the effect is stronger.
10/n

People like #Trump and #BoJo can afford to lie continuously for many years *because* of their maverick, flamboyant and naughty image.

It means people expect them to lie, and are therefore prepared to forgive much, but not all.
11/n

#Trump's current problem is that such leeway isn't infinite, he believes (rightly, IMO) that giving up on his sacred Wall is one step too far and that his electors would not forgive him if he did ditch it.
But alas, #Crobyn's situation is much worse.
12/n

#Corbyn's whole political weight is built upon his personal credibility. The offer of a new, more honest, more grounded & democratic way of doing politics on the left IS what got him in office.
He must know that losing that would mean being kicked out by #Labour membership.
13/n

Thus, he's fully trapped. He CANNOT say that voting for #Art50 and opposing #FOM was a mistake. But he MUST try to defend his image of honesty.

It turns out that the *only* way he could find to do both is what he's doing right now: push for #BINO (#Brexit in name only).
14/n

But it won't work: anyone who pays attention now knows he's putting his personal interests way before country AND party.
That's a problem, especially because #Labour members and potential voters are self-selected amongst those who do pay attention (2nd mechanism).
15/n

Overall, his latest move is, considering his self-inflicted constraints, quite clever, as @paulmasonnews points out:

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1093287133442396162

This strategy, to my surprise, it is not already guaranteed to fail, but it certainly is one other thing: desperate.
16/n

It is desperate 'cause it can work ONLY if the #Tories help. #Corbyn's only hope is that reality will catch up with the Tories before it catches up with him.
That's a bad place to be, because of the 2nd mechanism. Reality catches up at different speeds, it's a rigged race.
17/n

There are many things that could go wrong: as @sjwrenlewis says, a new party might suffocate him. mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2019/02/there-…
Or he could be ousted, or some #Brexit deal might happen and a new #Tory leader might produce new lies, or #NoDeal happens while he shares the blame.
18/n

Thus: the importance of the 2 mechanisms is paramount. What is happening on #Labour's side is a direct function of both, it doesn't look good.
Take home msg: if your opponent lies often and with profit, it DOES NOT MEAN that you can do the same. Quite the opposite, in fact.
19/n

Finally, all this isn't hindsight. I've published these predictions a long time ago, starting here:
sergiograziosi.wordpress.com/2017/01/29/the…
20/n

I've explained the force of the 1st mechanism here (in 2016!):
sergiograziosi.wordpress.com/2016/08/29/web…
21/n

And the consequences for @jeremycorbyn here (2nd mechanism being somewhat implicit):
sergiograziosi.wordpress.com/2018/01/13/cor…
22/n

Overall, I predict that #Brexit, whatever form it will take, will be the end of @jeremycorbyn (almost hoping I'm wrong).
Worse: it might be the end of the much needed anti-neoliberalism position of @UKLabour, which is why I couldn't keep these thoughts for myself.
23/end