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Lots of chat already today about the extension of the Article 50 period. Let me add to that, by trying to set out what is at stake. Thread. 1/
As things stand, the extension, subject to a review later this month, ends on October 31. The UK leaves with or without the WA on that date, unless it chooses to revoke A50 before that. 2/
In relation to the June review, I can't better this from @FabianZuleeg. 3/
There is strong determination (eg among Tory leadership contenders, under pressure from the Brexit party) to 'get it done' before the end of October. If so, no further extension would be required. 4/
The desire to 'get it done' is widely shared. Brexit uncertainty is damaging the economy. Other pressing economic and social questions are marginalised, or ignored. Endless extension - endless purgatory - is not in the UK's interests, and not in the EU's interests. 5/
Where the various factions differ is in relation to the small matter of how best to 'get it done'. A further extension will not be required if, but only if, one of the following happens... 6/
a) There is agreement (within Parliament *and with the EU*) on a deal - either the WA, the WA without the backstop (dream on...), or the WA with a softer PD. 7/
b) Parliament does not block the default - and a 'no deal' exit ensues. @IanDunt describes the problems with no deal, and outlines the key unanswered questions, here: politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/05/… 8/
c) Parliament chooses to revoke Article 50. 9/
There is strong support for each of these options, but, it seems, no majority in Parliament for any of them. Hence, it is thought that we need more time to find a solution; time which we have been entreated not to waste. 10/
Will the extra time help the UK to find a solution? One might wonder whether we are closer to a 'solution' than we were last November, when the WA was agreed. 11/
What could we do with extra time? I think that there are 3 options: a) give this Parliament more time to seek to reach agreement; b) organise a referendum, passing the choice back to the people; and c) have a general election, to enable a new Parliament to reach agreement. 12/
So... the question is whether the UK will, before the end of October, ask the EU for an extension, presumably in order to do one of the above three things. Whoever the new Tory leader is, they will (very likely) be reluctant to do so. 13/
And yet... the only way to avoid it, is to obtain a majority in Parliament for a deal, or to manage to leave without a deal (in the face of the (very likely) opposition from Parliament), or to revoke. 14/
To sum up... it is not clear whether the UK will ask for an extension. If it does, it is not clear what sort of plan the new PM is likely to present to the EU. Remember: the UK can only ask for an extension, it is for the EU-27, unanimously to agree. 15/
How might the EU react? The EU position has come in for criticism. See eg this from @TomMcTague. 16/
I think the criticism is misplaced. The EU acceded to the UK's requests in March and April in order to give the UK time to find a solution (by passing the WA). It did so in order to avoid a possible no deal exit. 17/
Where I think the EU did go wrong was in April, when it did not insist on a credible path forward (which had been part of the rationale for the first March extension). 18/
This time, I would expect the EU to revert to its March position. The new PM will have to demonstrate that there is a credible path forward. A further extension might not be granted unless there is commitment from the UK to a solution: ie to a PV or a GE. 19/
If that's right, that would put further pressure on the PM. Can they get a deal done? Will they head towards 'no deal'? Will they revoke A50? If not, will they commit to a PV or a GE? 20/
The reality is that these are the choices now. These were the choices in March and April. And, these will be the choices in 6 or 12 months' time. 21/
Some seem to take the view that if the EU 'forces' the UK's hand, and does not allow endless extensions, it will be 'forcing' the UK to leave with no deal. I don't think that is right. 22/
If the choice is forced, the EU will (with some justification) be pushing the UK... towards a resolution. Whether that is via a deal, no deal, or revoke - or via a commitment to a PV or GE - can only be for the UK to decide. 23/23
