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Here in western Marin County, we have historically always gotten about 30-40 inches of annual rainfall. 1
This past couple of years we have gotten about the same, maybe even a little more. So, based on the metrics, it seems that all is good. 2
California, if you don’t know, is actually kinda desert-like. We don’t have normal seasons, but rather we have only two real seasons: the Wet one, and the Dry one. It’s rainy and warm in the winter, and dry and hot in the summer. 3
Plant-life in a desert is very sensitive. It’s delicate because it lives on the edge all the time. 4
The rainfall in CA used to start gradually in October or November, build to a peak in January, then come to stop by early April. There were certainly exceptions, but the bulk of the rainfall followed this pattern. 5
For the last decade or so, the weather has been all over the map, with unseasonal drought and almost-never-seen thunderstorms appearing with alarming frequency. And rain at the wrong time. 6
For the last few years the weather has been settling into a new normal (yes I know it’s far too soon to proclaim a pattern, but a pattern is clearly emerging). That new normal has our expected rainfall of 30-40 inches, but it comes at the wrong time. 7
There is no rain in October or November. Sometimes it’s dry through December. The devastating Tubbs Fire was in October 2017. The Woolsey, Carr, and killer Camp Fires were in November 2018. The first rains weren’t until December, and then very small amounts. 8
Maddeningly, we’ve gotten some early rain storms in September that fool the plants into thinking it’s later in the year than it really is. 9
But after the extended dryness in the winter, the spring is wet and long and late. That’s when we get our normal allocation of rainfall and our reservoirs fill up. 10
Just this past May we got 5 inches of rain! This is extremely rare. That’s the kind of rainfall we’d expect in January. The last time it happened was over a hundred years ago. Now it seems regular. 11
As far as humans go, this doesn’t seem to be a big deal at all. We just wear our rain jackets a little later in the season. 12
But as far as the trees and the grass is concerned, this is a very, very big deal. I’m certainly no botanist, but changes in climate have broad and powerful effects on plants, particularly trees. 13
The trees feel the effects right now, even if they may not show any untoward effects for decades. They just exist on a longer time scale than we do. But deforestation is a leading indicator (cause?) of civilization collapse. 14
So, just because climate change means that you have to cope with changing weather, it doesn’t mean that that’s the end of the story. You have to cope with the death of forests due to changing weather, and that will be bad. Very bad. 15
