Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
It's sorta funny @davidsirota that you respond to a critique of mine about how you're cherry-picking polls to cherry-pick one result out of the thousands of forecasts we've made.
@davidsirota Here's a list of literally every election (and sports) forecast we've ever made, they're pretty good in the aggregate although some are wrong of course!
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-w…
@davidsirota Also @davidsirota it's sorta funny that you think this makes me mad. Literally nothing* makes me happier than calling out flagrantly dumb bullshit like you sometimes poop out; it's why I got into this business.

* In a work/professional context, lots of things are better IRL.
LOL .@davidsirota can't take the heat when you call out his bullshit.
The key when dealing with chronic bullshitters like @davidsirota is to recognize that they're arguing in bad faith and do quite a bit of trolling back, in addition to calling out their BS. Dudes can't figure out how to handle and wilt under the pressure every single time.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Nate Silver
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NateSilver538 see all

Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
NEW POLL: With @MorningConsult, we re-contacted Dems who we'd already surveyed before the debate.

Headline:🚨WARREN up from 12% to 18% after the first debate.🚨

Most of that support comes from BIDEN and undecided.

Some big caveats in the next tweet.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
The 2 big caveats:

There is likely some selection bias in the voters who have already responded to the survey, i.e. toward liberals/Warren voters who thought she had a big night and may have been more eager to respond.

And obviously.... there's another debate tonight.
Although Warren got the best overall ratings and the biggest polling bump, CASTRO did quite strongly relative to his favorability ratings going into the debate while O'ROURKE did poorly by that metric.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing I'm *pretty* sure people get wrong* is that Democrats disadvantage in districting/gerrymandering does not come from cities being denser than rural areas per se. 1/3

* I've thought about this a lot but am still not 100% sure my intuition is right.
Rather, it's that the bluest contiguous areas (which happen to be urban and dense) are bluer than the reddest contiguous areas (which happen to be rural) are red. 2/3
In a hypothetical world where certain rural areas were *extremely red* (e.g. 80%+ GOP voting), as red as some urban cores are blue (e.g. 80%+ DEM voting), the GOP would have more problems with districting and could more easily be gerrymandered. 3/3
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
And the sheriff's deputy initiated physical contact and *pushed Ujiri first*, according to eyewitness accounts.
Oh, and the sheriff conveniently claims that his body camera shut off the moment Ujiri allegedly made contact and the sheriff's department refuses to share video or photographs from Oracle Arena with the public: tgam.ca/2XZTGvm
This whole thing is deeply embarrassing for Oakland and Alameda County and I'm surprised that @AGBecerra hasn't gotten involved.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Branko Marcetic
@BMarchetich
After finally reading the "collusion" volume of the Mueller Report, I'm utterly baffled at how Russiagate people have been claiming its contents are a vindication of themselves and some of the more irresponsible media speculation that has been rife for 2+ years.
The report makes repeatedly clear, both in explicit statements and in descriptions of events, that the Trump campaign never made any sort of clandestine arrangement with the Kremlin, let alone that Trump is some sort of "Siberian candidate," to use a popular and silly phrase.
Seems like a lot of people on here haven't read the report, but rather (as typical) other people's tweeted screenshots of it. There is, luckily for those refusing to give up, enough bits to cherry-pick and take out of context to always claim the Truth is Still Out There.
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
By request.
Where does the top-line 10% GDP number come from in National Climate Assessment?
Chapter 29 of the report.
Annotated figure
nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/29/
Where does that figure come from?
Hsiang et al. (The only difference appears to be C vs F temps)
science.sciencemag.org/content/356/63…
Read 12 tweets
Profile picture
Annie Duke
@AnnieDuke
THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
Ajay Kirtane MD SM
@ajaykirtane
1/Given the reinvigorated discussion on the #ISCHEMIA trial, I thought I'd post selected slides from my #TCT2018 talk on some "predictions" for the trial.
2/This is the overall #ISCHEMIA trial design c/o @GreggWStone
3/Here are some basic questions that will influence interpretability of the trial. I'm sure there are others I left out...
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Carsen Stringer
@computingnature
Thread: A picture is worth a thousand words, and your brain needs billions of neurons to process it. Why do we need so many neurons? To find out, we recorded thousands of them in mouse visual cortex. Here’s some data, and a link to the paper:
biorxiv.org/content/early/…
2. One reason to have so many neurons may be that they each have different jobs:
Neuron A recognizes the pointedness of a fox’s ears,
Neuron B recognizes the color of the fox’s fur.
Neuron C recognizes a fox nose,
etc
3. When enough of these neurons activate, the brain as a whole can recognize a fox.
Read 25 tweets
Profile picture
Alex Cobham
@alexcobham
Here's a critique of the UK database entries of our Financial Secrecy Index, from a lawyer at Clifford Chance - one of the world's ten biggest law firms (per Wikipedia). And what follows is a response on the points raised.
To begin, we really value expert feedback. We had a nearly two-year review process before the Jan.2018 release, which we were delighted to find brought in a great many stakeholders, including experts, users and subject jurisdiction policymakers..
You can find more information about the methodology and review, including a statistical analysis by the European Commission's index experts, here: financialsecrecyindex.com/introduction/m…
Read 139 tweets

Trending hashtags

#semenya #MyHealhRecord #MyHROptOut #EvidenceSynthesis #DomesticViolence #AmericanDOS #SoundCloud #HarrietTubman #BADASS #carolinas #np #research #MyHealthRecord #HarrietDeservesBetter #ThisIsOurLane #FOI #GDPR #Harriet #scicomm #fsi18 #btsau #2018Elections #Privacy #docs4gunsense #SystematicReview
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!