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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
SandersBrothers can't seem to decide if they should tout how good their polling is or claim that polls are unreliable and should be ignored.
To be fair it's tricky because if you assume that primaries are 100% predictable based on polls, then Biden wins, but if you assume that primaries are totally unpredictable, then Bernie has like a 1/23 chance but it's the same as Bill de Blasio or whatever.
SandersBrothers should therefore embrace the sort of probabilistic thinking espoused by 538, which aptly assesses that he's among the stronger candidates but not the favorite, and that everyone but **maybe** Biden is inherently something of a longshot with 23 runners in the race.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
NEW POLL: With @MorningConsult, we re-contacted Dems who we'd already surveyed before the debate.

Headline:🚨WARREN up from 12% to 18% after the first debate.🚨

Most of that support comes from BIDEN and undecided.

Some big caveats in the next tweet.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-deb…
The 2 big caveats:

There is likely some selection bias in the voters who have already responded to the survey, i.e. toward liberals/Warren voters who thought she had a big night and may have been more eager to respond.

And obviously.... there's another debate tonight.
Although Warren got the best overall ratings and the biggest polling bump, CASTRO did quite strongly relative to his favorability ratings going into the debate while O'ROURKE did poorly by that metric.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing I'm *pretty* sure people get wrong* is that Democrats disadvantage in districting/gerrymandering does not come from cities being denser than rural areas per se. 1/3

* I've thought about this a lot but am still not 100% sure my intuition is right.
Rather, it's that the bluest contiguous areas (which happen to be urban and dense) are bluer than the reddest contiguous areas (which happen to be rural) are red. 2/3
In a hypothetical world where certain rural areas were *extremely red* (e.g. 80%+ GOP voting), as red as some urban cores are blue (e.g. 80%+ DEM voting), the GOP would have more problems with districting and could more easily be gerrymandered. 3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
And the sheriff's deputy initiated physical contact and *pushed Ujiri first*, according to eyewitness accounts.
Oh, and the sheriff conveniently claims that his body camera shut off the moment Ujiri allegedly made contact and the sheriff's department refuses to share video or photographs from Oracle Arena with the public: tgam.ca/2XZTGvm
This whole thing is deeply embarrassing for Oakland and Alameda County and I'm surprised that @AGBecerra hasn't gotten involved.
Read 3 tweets

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Nick Wallis
@nickwallis
Good morning. We are in court 26 of the High Court’s Rolls Building for the continuation of the Horizon trial, the second trial of the Bates and others v Post Office class action. Live tweet thread to follow. Here are the Post Office barristers arriving for work.
#postofficetrial
For background to this trial/class action please take a look at postofficetrial.com

Please note everything I tweet is a summary or description of what is happening/being said. Nothing is a direct quote unless it is in “direct quotes"
The judge is sitting and going through some admin. He says he is hoping to hand down what will be judgment no. 5 by the end of the day. It relates to his refusal to allow the Post Office to appeal the Common Issues trial judgment.
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April Doss
@AprilFDoss
Good grief. Why are news orgs doing polls of public opinion on a report that neither the public nor the news orgs have seen? And why do these articles keep referring to "Mueller report findings" instead of to "AG Barr's characterization"?
Lots of questions can't be answered until we see the report: 1) Which facts (inculpatory or exculpatory) did Mueller's team decide to include, and why? 2) Did they decide not to pursue certain lines of inquiry, and why? 3) Was evidence unavailable for some issues, and why?
These and so many other questions can only be assessed by reading the report. The focus right now should be on making the report available to Congress and the public as quickly and completely as possible. Only then can we have an informed discussion about what it means.
Read 3 tweets
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Dr. Dena Grayson
@DrDenaGrayson
Manafort gave 75 PAGES of #polling data to a #Russian🇷🇺intelligence agent (Kilimnik) with the GRU👉hacked @TheDemocrats.

Manafort gave #Russia DETAILED "cross-tabs" (not just top-line results) that could be used to MICROTARGET voters on social media.🤬

thedailybeast.com/paul-manafort-…
I ran for Congress, and my husband served for 6 years in Congress. Campaigns typically only share such DETAILED #polling data to entities helping the campaign communicate with voters (e.g., field, mailings, TV/radio/social media ads, etc).🤨

#TrumpRussia
Team🇺🇸Mueller said the Manafort/Kilimnik meeting goes to the "heart" of the #TrumpRussia🇷🇺probe👉there is NO legitimate explanation for why Manafort would share such DETAILED #polling data with THE RUSSIANS.

Total "#collusion," also known legally as #conspiracy against the US.🤬
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Another Planet's Hell 🌊
@cravennewworld
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
2/ Polls have two major aspects: Sample and Methodology. These are the parameters that define how the poll is taken and how accurately it reflects a population.
3/ Let's start with sample, also called sample size. It tells you how many people are polled to get the results. Most of the big polls you see in the news have a sample size somewhere around a thousand. This works for the pollsters, because it's a manageable
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SEGA L’éveilleur®🚨
@segalink
With the offside trap position of the @APCNigeria @OfficialAPCNg on Presidency, they have shown us who represents the future of Nigeria in their own wisdom. It is up to the other 90 political parties to show us they have better ideas through internal party democracy. #Primaries
For the recovering @OfficialPDPNig a lot is expected of them. You have many promising aspirants & how this translates into a consensus candidate via a credible process is essential to making a believer of Nigerians. This may be a determining factor to the revival of the party.
For the rest of the upcoming parties, it is essential to identify your SWOT realistically and form an effective coalition. This is not a time for playing popularity contest. There must be a sacrifice more credible than being president if Change is truly desired.
Read 10 tweets
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Nicolas Martin
@nfmartin1980
Remember this dwarf galaxy that was presented as lacking dark matter last week (van Dokkum et al. 2018)? #thread
arxiv.org/abs/1803.10237
Since extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, my student @Nico_Longeard and I decided to have a look at the claim of very low velocity dispersion and M/L in NGC1052-DF2 and, how to say…
Turns out that sampling a distribution function with 10 tracers is tricky. Small number statistics are a pain and the uncertainties on the velocities of the 10 globular clusters studied in the paper are of order the intrinsic velocity dispersion. #tricky
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