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Brecon and Radnorshire by-election is ON. Potentially one of the most consequential in a very long time.
LDs will enter as favourites - they hold the Welsh Assembly seat, and held the Commons seat for 18 years prior to their 2015 collapse. These are the kind of seats they routinely won in by-elections before 2010.
I assume Brexit party will context, so there's a good chance this becomes a straight fight between LDs and BXP. And, if that effects how the public sees the viability of both parties, it could become a sign of things to come in many other seats
Whoever wins it will also have a meaningful impact on the very narrowly divided Commons arithmetic. LD win means one less vote for any Con policy and one more vote for 2nd referendum/early election/no Brexit etc.
While a BXP win would also mean one less vote for most Con policies, probably, and one more vote for No Deal Brexit
Going to be interesting to see what the Greens and Plaid do here. LDs clearly the strongest "Remain" party - will they stand down to maximise the chances of a "Remain" win?
