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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Anyone projecting specific House of Commons seat numbers from polling like this, and making claims about a future general eleciton with polling trends like this, is a fool or a knave.
How would four parties on between 18% and 24% translate to seats across the country under FPP? Nobody knows, or could possibly know, as nothing like it has happened in living memory.
How will party support shift between now and the general election. Nobody knows or could possibly know. It has shifted by 10 points or more in a few months for each of Con, Lab, and LDs, and BXP have gone from zero to over 20%. Nothing like this has happened in living memory.
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Not surprising - higher education levels and political interest are (in the US) associated with stronger partisanship, and thus stronger partisan biases.
I'm not sure I agree that responsibility for this can be put on universities or news media. If people have a strong attachment to an ingroup, and a strong hostility to outgroups, they will filter whatever information they are presented with to fit their existing prejudices
So it wouldn't make much difference if the news media and/or university professors presented strong partisans with entirely neutral and accurate information about their opponents, as strong partisans just ignore or explain away such info, while retaining info that confirms bias.
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Brecon and Radnorshire by-election is ON. Potentially one of the most consequential in a very long time.
LDs will enter as favourites - they hold the Welsh Assembly seat, and held the Commons seat for 18 years prior to their 2015 collapse. These are the kind of seats they routinely won in by-elections before 2010.
I assume Brexit party will context, so there's a good chance this becomes a straight fight between LDs and BXP. And, if that effects how the public sees the viability of both parties, it could become a sign of things to come in many other seats
Read 6 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
We are now nearly a month on from the Eur Parl election, and still getting polls with neither Lab nor Con in the top two. Each such poll increases the risk that the "Tinkerbell effect" turns against the incumbents and starts to benefit the insurgents:
newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
And later today we will find out if Brecon and Radnorshire will hold a by-election. What happens if that becomes the first ever by election with Lib Dems and Brexit party sharing the top two spots?
A reversion to politics as usual is the more likely outcome, at least in the SR after new MP installed. But every week that passes when it doesn't happen increases the chance it won't happen. Scottish Labour thought things would go back to normal, too. Look how that turned out.
Read 3 tweets

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Dr. Dena Grayson
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Manafort gave 75 PAGES of #polling data to a #Russian🇷🇺intelligence agent (Kilimnik) with the GRU👉hacked @TheDemocrats.

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thedailybeast.com/paul-manafort-…
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#TrumpRussia
Team🇺🇸Mueller said the Manafort/Kilimnik meeting goes to the "heart" of the #TrumpRussia🇷🇺probe👉there is NO legitimate explanation for why Manafort would share such DETAILED #polling data with THE RUSSIANS.

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Russian Platform
@RussiaConnects
AN EMPIRE OF PUREST EVIL

It's a contradiction in terms. Pure. Evil. An evil distilled thru the years to the purest form of evil possible. Its proponents believe it is always right, always pure of motive, always correct in its actions. It is the U.S.A., purest evil on our planet.
AN EMPIRE OF PUREST EVIL

It all began quite well. Another evil empire was confronted & beaten, that of the Nazis. U.S. troops were heroes as they arrived, albeit belatedly to help embattled Britain as she fought valiantly & single-handedly against the purest evil of those days.
AN EMPIRE OF PUREST EVIL

WWII was the U.S.A. at her best. At home tho people were unsure whether they had anything to gain by being involved. Many said they did not. And at least 20,000 who attended a Nazi rally in New York in 1939 would have fought with the Nazis if they could.
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Four things many people believe about tax in the UK that just ain't so:
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Richard Herrey
@RichardHerrey
Såg just klippet där Sveriges Radios reporter på fullt allvar frågade förbundskapten Janne Andersson varför VM-truppen i fotboll inte hade tillräcklig mångfald gällande ursprung?????
Ska man skratta eller gråta?
#PåRiktigt
Det är alltså första frågan på presskonferensen om vm-truppen som handlar om bristande mångfald i laget. Mycket ska man höra. Klippet finns här fotbollskanalen.se/video/3970664/…
Redaktionen på Konflikt i P1,
som frågade om brist på mångfald i landslaget heter alltså för att göra situationen än mer..Lustig (förlåt) :
Ekman, Olin, Sahlberg, Benner.
(råkade felaktigt skriva namnen från ’Kaliber’ först. Nu alltså korrat för ordningens skull #rättskavarätt )
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