Thread by @QGornt

$NXE a thread about permitting timeframes for the NexGen Energy Rook I Project, I conclude best case permits by 3Q-2021. This analysis is in response to various uncertainty on when the uranium mine might get permits.

...for example: "... first of all, you don't know when the project will actually get permitted and built. So maybe some will say 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026,
2027, there's all this speculation as to how long the permits will take. Who knows..." -@FootnotesFirst smithweeklyinternational.com/online/Wq36PU9…

My timeframe estimate will be based on historical duration of other mining, road & port projects in Canada, started since 2012, under the "Environmental Assessment by Responsible Authority" method, under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act of 2012 (same $NXE faces)

Step 1: break permitting into filing milestones: Project Description, Final Guidelines, EIS, Draft EA, Decision -- collect data from ceaa-acee.gc.ca/050/evaluation…

Step 2: calculate duration (days) of all four periods (PD>FG, FG>EIS, EIS>Draft EA, DraftEA>Decision)

Step 3: Display the min, median and max for each stage of the process

Step 4: I assume NXE submits the EIS in August 2020 vs mgmt guidance of June 2020, then based on the database output I apply historical min/median/max periods to arrive at the Decision period

Verdict: "Best case" (using the minimum times) is permits for Rook I are issued by August 2021. "Base case" (medians) permits by April 2022. "Worst case" (max) by April 2025.

Note: best case scenario is based on a minimum EIS>Draft EA timeframe of 271 days, the best that was accomplished by the Brucejack Gold Mine Project, plus another 70 days for the Draft EA>Decision period, which is the record accomplished by Hardrock Gold Mine Project

Ultimately it will come down to the quality of the EIS, any controversy around opposition, and other factors that might drive delays such as expanded consultations or more detailed requests for information that can drag out the EA drafting stage.

Given simplicity, small scale and low impact of the project, and the significant funding being expended for technical studies and consultation (doggie orphanages, etc) relative to many underfunded, wannabe project developers, I am optimistic $NXE can complete faster than average