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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I am very happy with a number of unconventional gambles I made in 2016:
1. Brexit is not a result of lies but a deeply felt view of a majority in UK
2. EU will pay a high price if it does not show some flexibility in negotiation
3. Trump will not destroy US democracy
...
4. Trump will change terms of debate
5. China is making a very high number of unforced errors in foreign policy
And finally, the jury still out
6. German economy will suffer as a result of Germany’s inability to reform and China’s new role in global economy
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More from @MacaesBruno see all

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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
Well, a package raising many, many questions. One can see the weaknesses so vividly and the virtues very dimly. It was very unfortunate that ECB fell prey to politics. Lagarde would have been good anywhere else, but not here. You need deep finance experience, quantitative mind...
I fear all four candidates will end up leading weaker institutions than we have had so far. Member states will be in charge. Hope I am wrong.
Just compare to:
Timmermans
Lagarde
Malmstrom
Liikanen
Read 4 tweets
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
My suggestion:
Commission Timmermans
Parliament Weber
Council Merkel
HR Malmstrom
Everyone where they belong
If Merkel is not available, Draghi or Lagarde for Council
EPP won election so should lead Parliament. Timmermans is a policy guy. Council needs to lead, not be led by Commission. Malmstrom was the whole of EU foreign policy last five years
Read 3 tweets
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
As I said in my talk this week in Wuhan it is entirely possible countries such as Bosnia, Macedonia and Serbia will never join the EU, becoming more closely alligned with China
politico.eu/article/beijin…
Of course in a way reminiscent of the Europe-Ottoman system
Read 3 tweets

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Georgina Wright
@GeorginaEWright
Very interesting - but will it make a difference? Some reflections on how the US sees #Brexit after a couple of days in Washington D.C. (thread)
1. Generally, lots of confusion: about the process, politics and details of Brexit. No deal a worry for US firms (already in UK) and, interestingly, Americans planning to travel to UK/Europe (media coverage of food shortages and flight disruption).
2. But Trump is simply not interested in the process of leaving the EU - much more about what happens after the UK has left. For him, a hard Brexit presents trade opportunities for the US. Plus, he distrusts the EU.
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU has almost given up trying to understand what’s going on in UK.
Dutch PM Rutte compares Theresa May to Monty Python knight whose limbs get cut off in a duel but insists the fight was a draw. Elsewhere in EU, mood is darker esp with the prospect of a lengthy #Brexit delay 1
With UK politics mired in confusion, only thing EU can control this week is choreography at EU leaders’ summit, starting Thurs. Donald Tusk, EU Council president is visiting capitals to try to co-ordinate single EU response if/when Theresa May asks for article 50 extension 2
Today Tusk is in Berlin and Paris – the EU superpowers. But when it comes to delaying Brexit, any one of the EU’s 27 leaders has a veto. The decision must be unanimous 3
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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
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Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. So with #Brexit, we now have a provisional whole UK political agreement that we will have regulatory alignment with a view to maintaining free movement of goods. The future trade agreement will have to respect those conditions.
2. That is a long winded way of say that so far as goods are concerned, we are staying in the single market. That though does not take into account services, air travel and the many other areas covered by the EEA agreement. That is still for negotiation.
3. When it comes down to that, it is likely that the UK will wish to preserve as much access to the EU aviation market as possible with the same or similar rights to the EEA. We have, as yet, no concrete position on what the UK will ask for in terms of services.
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