Thread by @Staedtler

For the same reason I knew that Theresa May would resign when she couldn't get her withdrawal agreement through parliament.

The chance of her resigning was 100 percent

Because that's how it works in real life. It's not about percent chances. It's about consequences, and you can't measure it in percent. You can only measure it in humans and the decisions they make.

What were the chances Theresa May would get a withdrawal agreement through parliament after losing her majority? Zero.

There was no odds about it. They were real people and they were not going to vote for it.

And the chance of Theresa May keeping her job after losing her vote? Again, zero.
Because in real life you can't stay prime minister when you lost both your majority and your single defining policy.

Once Theresa May lost her majority the chance of getting a Brexit deal through parliament was zero. And the chance of her resigning was 100 percent.

And that's how real life works.

And there will be a general election in the autumn because that's how real life works as well.
And at least one party will have another referendum in their manifesto, and that will force everyone else to offer one as well.

And that's how real life works as well.

You can't really calculate it in that way, but as a sketch, the chance of us leaving the European Union are approaching zero and falling all the time.

Because the government has no majority. And if it does anything except offer another referendum it will collapse. And then comes an election with manifestos, and suddenly everyone is offering a referendum.

Approaching zero, and falling all the time.