Thread by @BrunoBrussels

EU is unsure whether May will send a letter tomorrow or make oral request for extension at #EUCO on Thursday
“Does she have the authority because of the volatility,” said a senior source

Depending on what she does, #EUCO conclusions will either be detailed on extension options or vague. One issue will be whether May wants to hold a Commons vote on extension

There could be an extra summit around 28 or, even 29 March.
Spain will not use Gibraltar issue to complicate an extension - all EU27 have a veto. “A rare moment of Brexit sanity,"

Balance of consensus is that a third meaningful vote will take place
So where are we on extension?
The EU agreed two extension options, short and lengthy and the conditions for a long delay to Brexit.

If there is a 3rd meaningful, expected next week at the latest, gets the withdrawal agreement through parliament through then delay will be short until 30 June

If Mrs May is defeated, as the EU expects, then a long extension of, at the very least nine months, up to two years will be agreed.
The extension has to be a “fixed date in order to ensure legal certainty”. Elections will have to be held on 23 May to European Parliament.

EU will want assurances that Britain will not be a “spoiler” on European legislation by using its veto and voting power to disrupt decisions on Brussels budgets and trade negotiations.

Although all the moaning about MFF is a bit misleading as no one really expects decision until Feb/Mar next year anyway. EU more worried about UK being a “spoiler” on legislation, some signs it is doing that already

Extension can be cut short early if “withdrawal agreement has entered into force” or “notification of the intention to withdrawal has been revoked”, according to the EU paper. Could help May sell a longer delay...

Merkel in Berlin. "I will fight until the 29 deadline to ensure that we achieve an orderly Brexit,”