Thread by @BradMunchen

1) $TSLA $TSLAQ
This is only for the hardcore $TSLA earnings model bros: @4xRevenue @CoverDrive12 @Andreas_Hopf @mtb7031 @Vikingbhoy @GatorInvestor @spudheadcapital @g_schelle etc.

$TSLA lies w/ their quarterly automotive revenues & gross profits. Here's how:

2) On the Q1'18 conf-call, Musk said that S/X gross margins were "north of 25%" & in Q2 "up sequentially". Given the ASP of ~$102K for S/X, this implies a COGS/unit of ~$75K.

Fast forward to Q1'19 guidance on conf-call: "Model 3 ASP nearly $50K & gross margin approximately 20%"

3) We know Zach Boy CFO said in Q1, S/X price cuts led to lower gross margins overall. So here's my maths:

(a) Automotive revenues reported: $3.5bn - $0.22bn (ZEV/GHG credits) + $0.5bn in lease buyback reserves.

(b) At $50K in ASPs for M3, revs were $2.5bn; That means.....

4) Q1 S/X revenues had to be $1.2bn. This implies $102K in ASPs, which is higher than Q2'18 ASP of $101K (confirmed w/ the Street's best $TSLA analysts).

But Q1'19 S/X ASPs were cut by ~20%, if memory serves correctly. Which means the should've been $75K~$80K. Doesn't add up.

5) On Q1'19 conf-call, Zach Boy claimed that M3 gross margin was "approximately 20%". To match the unrealistic S/X ASP assumptions, I get the following for Q1 gross margins (ex-ZEV/GHG + $92m lease reserve loss):

M3: 19.9%
S/X: 19.1%

I feel comfortable w/ this, but not w/ ASPs

6) So, based on the above, I get Q2'19 ASPs as follows:

M3: $48K (mix is bad, but what is clear is: +$400 px hike across the board, minus $2.4K/unit for Autopilot, which became free after Apr-12th).

S/X: ASP of $92K (I'm sure this is wrong, as $TSLA liquidated S/X inventory)

7) So, including Q2'19 ZEV/GHG credit sales assumptions of $250m, I get GAAP net loss @ -$445m. Ex-ZEV/GHG, this would be -$693m vs Q1's -$918m. Will publish my model shortly, but this is what I have so far after $TSLA's record quarterly deliveries report. Please chime in $TSLAQ